Fixture · Serie A · Sat 17 Oct 2026, 19:45 BST
AS Roma
v Genoa
The model's read
AS Roma
56%
match result
Draw
26%
match result
Genoa
18%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance AS Roma or draw | 81.8% |
| Double chance Genoa or draw | 44.2% |
| Double chance either team | 74.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.6% |
| Both teams to score | 49.5% |
| AS Roma over 1.5 team goals | 51.3% |
| Genoa over 1.5 team goals | 22.4% |
| AS Roma clean sheet | 41.0% |
| Genoa clean sheet | 17.9% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.4% · 1-0 11.5% · 2-0 10.9% · 2-1 9.7% · 0-0 8.5%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — AS Roma: another match 3d before (2026-10-14).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
AS Roma
- AS Roma are unbeaten in their last 12 league games (W10 D2).
- AS Roma have averaged 2.5 goals a game across their last 6 home league games.
Genoa
- Both teams have scored in each of Genoa's last 4 league games.
- Genoa have conceded in each of their last 8 league games.
- Genoa have scored just 3 goals across their last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- Paulo Dybala is averaging a 8.0 match rating over 5 league games this season.
- Donyell Malen has scored 6 goals in 5 league games this season.
- Manu Koné has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
- M. Osmajić has scored 3 goals in 5 league games this season.
- J. Bijlow has made 16 saves in 6 league games this season.
- Lorenzo Colombo has 2 assists in 5 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — AS Roma
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | D | 2-2 | Inter (H) | 1.7 - 2.4 |
| 14 Sep | W | 2-0 | Torino (A) | 1.9 - 0.8 |
| 10 Sep | D | 1-1 | Fenerbahçe (A) | — |
| 05 Sep | W | 2-1 | Atalanta (H) | 3.0 - 0.7 |
| 31 Aug | W | 4-0 | Lecce (A) | 3.2 - 0.7 |
| 24 Aug | W | 4-0 | Fiorentina (H) | 2.7 - 0.2 |
Recent form — Genoa
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | W | 2-1 | Fiorentina (H) | 1.4 - 1.0 |
| 20 Sep | L | 1-2 | Parma (A) | 0.8 - 0.3 |
| 12 Sep | D | 1-1 | Frosinone (H) | 1.9 - 1.9 |
| 04 Sep | L | 1-4 | Como (H) | 0.8 - 1.8 |
| 30 Aug | L | 0-1 | Lazio (A) | 0.6 - 1.6 |
| 22 Aug | L | 0-2 | Napoli (H) | 0.6 - 0.1 |
Chance quality, most recent season
AS Roma
+1.54
xG diff/game · 2.51 for, 0.96 against
Genoa
-0.11
xG diff/game · 0.99 for, 1.10 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma | Serie A | 2026/27 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 12–1 | WWWW |
| Genoa | Serie A | 2026/27 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0.25 | 2–8 | DLLL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma | home | Serie A | 2026/27 | 2-0-0 | 3.0 / 0.5 | 1 |
| Genoa | away | Serie A | 2026/27 | 0-0-1 | 0.0 / 1.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: AS Roma 6 wins, 2 draws, Genoa 2 wins — 2.3 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Mar 26 | Genoa | 2-1 | AS Roma |
| 29 Dec 25 | AS Roma | 3-1 | Genoa |