Fixture · Championship · Sat 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 BST
Birmingham
v QPR
The model's read
Birmingham
47%
match result
Draw
27%
match result
QPR
26%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Birmingham or draw | 73.8% |
| Double chance QPR or draw | 52.7% |
| Double chance either team | 73.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.0% |
| Both teams to score | 57.5% |
| Birmingham over 1.5 team goals | 49.5% |
| QPR over 1.5 team goals | 33.4% |
| Birmingham clean sheet | 30.4% |
| QPR clean sheet | 19.0% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.6% · 2-1 9.5% · 1-0 8.4% · 2-0 8.0% · 0-0 6.9%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — QPR: another match 3d before (2026-10-14).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Birmingham
- Birmingham are unbeaten in their last 3 league games (W2 D1).
- 5 of Birmingham's last 6 home league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 6 of Birmingham's last 6 home league games.
QPR
- QPR are winless in their last 5 league games (D4 L1).
- QPR are unbeaten in their last 4 league games (W0 D4).
Players in form
- J. Beadle has made 23 saves in 9 league games this season.
- P. Neumann has scored 2 goals in 9 league games this season.
- Carlos Vicente has scored 2 goals in 9 league games this season.
- P. Charles has made 22 saves in 9 league games this season.
- I. Chair has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
- R. Burrell has scored 2 goals in 8 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Birmingham
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | W | 1-0 | West Brom (A) | 2.6 - 1.1 |
| 19 Sep | D | 2-2 | Middlesbrough (H) | 1.2 - 2.1 |
| 12 Sep | W | 2-1 | Derby (A) | 3.2 - 1.1 |
| 09 Sep | L | 1-2 | Norwich (A) | 1.6 - 1.0 |
| 06 Sep | D | 2-2 | Wolves (H) | 1.4 - 1.9 |
| 01 Sep | D | 1-1 | Southampton (H) | 1.6 - 1.0 |
Recent form — QPR
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Oct | D | 1-1 | West Ham (A) | 1.2 - 1.6 |
| 19 Sep | D | 2-2 | Preston (H) | 2.5 - 1.5 |
| 12 Sep | D | 1-1 | West Brom (A) | 0.6 - 1.2 |
| 09 Sep | D | 0-0 | Charlton (A) | 1.1 - 0.5 |
| 05 Sep | L | 0-1 | Middlesbrough (H) | 1.0 - 2.5 |
| 02 Sep | W | 2-1 | Cardiff (H) | 2.1 - 0.6 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Birmingham
+0.38
xG diff/game · 1.64 for, 1.26 against
QPR
+0.19
xG diff/game · 1.39 for, 1.20 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | Championship | 2026/27 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 1.429 | 10–9 | WLDDW |
| QPR | Championship | 2026/27 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 1.714 | 8–5 | DDLWW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | home | Championship | 2026/27 | 0-3-0 | 1.7 / 1.7 | 0 |
| QPR | away | Championship | 2026/27 | 2-2-0 | 1.5 / 0.8 | 1 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Birmingham 4 wins, 2 draws, QPR 4 wins — 1.8 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Mar 26 | Birmingham | 1-0 | QPR |
| 09 Dec 25 | QPR | 2-1 | Birmingham |