Fixture · Premier League · Sat 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 BST
Brentford
v Liverpool
The model's read
Brentford
40%
match result
Draw
27%
match result
Liverpool
33%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Brentford or draw | 67.1% |
| Double chance Liverpool or draw | 59.6% |
| Double chance either team | 73.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.2% |
| Both teams to score | 60.5% |
| Brentford over 1.5 team goals | 46.3% |
| Liverpool over 1.5 team goals | 40.5% |
| Brentford clean sheet | 24.9% |
| Liverpool clean sheet | 21.0% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.5% · 2-1 8.9% · 1-2 7.9% · 1-0 7.0% · 2-0 6.4%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — Liverpool: another match 3d before (2026-10-14).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Brentford
- Brentford are unbeaten in their last 8 league games (W2 D6).
- Brentford have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 6 home league games.
- Brentford have averaged 2.0 goals a game across their last 6 home league games.
Liverpool
- Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 6 league games (W2 D4).
- Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 3 league games.
Players in form
- C. Kelleher has made 22 saves in 6 league games this season.
- K. Schade has scored 3 goals in 6 league games this season.
- V. Janelt has scored 2 goals in 6 league games this season.
- A. Isak has scored 4 goals in 5 league games this season.
- C. Gakpo has 1 goal and 3 assists in 5 league games this season.
- Alisson Becker has made 14 saves in 5 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Brentford
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | D | 2-2 | Aston Villa (A) | 1.3 - 1.8 |
| 18 Sep | W | 3-0 | Chelsea (H) | — |
| 12 Sep | D | 2-2 | Bournemouth (A) | 0.5 - 1.8 |
| 05 Sep | D | 1-1 | Sunderland (H) | 1.2 - 1.7 |
| 30 Aug | D | 1-1 | Leeds (A) | 1.6 - 1.4 |
| 22 Aug | W | 3-0 | Tottenham (H) | 4.0 - 0.5 |
Recent form — Liverpool
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | W | 1-0 | Bournemouth (A) | 1.6 - 0.8 |
| 12 Sep | D | 0-0 | Fulham (H) | 1.3 - 0.7 |
| 09 Sep | W | 2-1 | Atletico Madrid (H) | 1.6 - 0.9 |
| 04 Sep | W | 2-0 | Ipswich (A) | 0.7 - 0.8 |
| 29 Aug | D | 2-2 | Nottingham Forest (H) | 1.8 - 2.3 |
| 23 Aug | D | 2-2 | Newcastle (A) | 2.2 - 1.4 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Brentford
+0.27
xG diff/game · 1.71 for, 1.44 against
Liverpool
+0.33
xG diff/game · 1.52 for, 1.19 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford | Premier League | 2026/27 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 10–4 | WDDDW |
| Liverpool | Premier League | 2026/27 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 6–4 | DWDD |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford | home | Premier League | 2026/27 | 1-1-0 | 2.0 / 0.5 | 1 |
| Liverpool | away | Premier League | 2026/27 | 1-1-0 | 2.0 / 1.0 | 1 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Brentford 2 wins, 2 draws, Liverpool 6 wins — 3.3 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 May 26 | Liverpool | 1-1 | Brentford |
| 25 Oct 25 | Brentford | 3-2 | Liverpool |