Fixture · Serie B · Sat 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 BST
Carrarese
v Modena
The model's read
Carrarese
38%
match result
Draw
30%
match result
Modena
32%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Carrarese or draw | 68.2% |
| Double chance Modena or draw | 62.1% |
| Double chance either team | 69.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.9% |
| Both teams to score | 49.8% |
| Carrarese over 1.5 team goals | 35.8% |
| Modena over 1.5 team goals | 31.2% |
| Carrarese clean sheet | 32.3% |
| Modena clean sheet | 28.4% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 14.4% · 0-0 10.5% · 1-0 10.2% · 0-1 9.1% · 2-1 8.2%
Model readiness. Carrarese has played 5 league games this season, Modena 5 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Young rating. This league joined the model this season, so the numbers
above are built on a first season of data only — a small sample with no prior
seasons behind it. Read them with more caution than the established six leagues. No
picks are generated from young leagues; how well these reads age is scored in public,
separately, on the calibration page.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Carrarese
- Carrarese are winless in their last 10 league games (D3 L7).
- Carrarese have lost their last 3 league games.
- Carrarese have failed to score in their last 3 league games.
- Carrarese have conceded in each of their last 6 league games.
Players in form
- Giuseppe Ambrosino has 2 assists in 2 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Carrarese
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | L | 0-1 | Benevento (H) | 0.8 - 1.2 |
| 12 Sep | L | 0-1 | Catanzaro (A) | — |
| 05 Sep | L | 0-1 | Empoli (H) | 0.8 - 0.7 |
| 29 Aug | D | 1-1 | Ascoli (A) | 1.8 - 1.6 |
| 22 Aug | L | 1-2 | Mantova (H) | 0.8 - 1.1 |
| 08 May | L | 1-2 | Virtus Entella (A) | 0.5 - 1.5 |
Recent form — Modena
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | W | 2-1 | Empoli (H) | — |
| 12 Sep | D | 1-1 | Sudtirol (A) | — |
| 06 Sep | L | 0-1 | Avellino (H) | 2.0 - 0.4 |
| 28 Aug | W | 3-0 | Cremonese (A) | 0.6 - 0.4 |
| 22 Aug | W | 2-1 | Benevento (A) | 0.5 - 0.5 |
| 12 May | L | 0-1 | Juve Stabia (H) | 1.0 - 0.3 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Carrarese
-0.12
xG diff/game · 1.04 for, 1.16 against
Modena
+0.62
xG diff/game · 1.04 for, 0.42 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese | Serie B | 2026/27 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0.25 | 2–5 | LLDL |
| Modena | Serie B | 2026/27 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 1.75 | 6–3 | DLWW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese | home | Serie B | 2026/27 | 0-0-2 | 0.5 / 1.5 | 0 |
| Modena | away | Serie B | 2026/27 | 2-1-0 | 2.0 / 0.7 | 1 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 6 meetings: Carrarese 1 wins, 1 draws, Modena 4 wins — 2.33 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb 26 | Modena | 2-0 | Carrarese |
| 01 Oct 25 | Carrarese | 0-0 | Modena |