Fixture · Championship · Sat 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 BST
Derby
v Stoke City
The model's read
Derby
41%
match result
Draw
29%
match result
Stoke City
30%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Derby or draw | 70.3% |
| Double chance Stoke City or draw | 58.9% |
| Double chance either team | 70.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.5% |
| Both teams to score | 52.0% |
| Derby over 1.5 team goals | 40.0% |
| Stoke City over 1.5 team goals | 31.4% |
| Derby clean sheet | 32.1% |
| Stoke City clean sheet | 25.3% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 13.9% · 1-0 9.9% · 0-0 9.4% · 2-1 8.7% · 0-1 7.9%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — Derby: another match 3d before (2026-10-14).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Derby
- Derby are winless in their last 5 league games (D2 L3).
- Derby have not won any of their last 6 home league games (D2 L4).
Stoke City
- Stoke City have won their last 3 league games.
- Stoke City are unbeaten in their last 6 league games (W5 D1).
- Both teams have scored in each of Stoke City's last 4 league games.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Stoke City's last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- J. Widell Zetterström has made 28 saves in 7 league games this season.
- S. Szmodics has scored 3 goals in 8 league games this season.
- B. Clark has scored 2 goals in 9 league games this season.
- V. Johansson has made 28 saves in 9 league games this season.
- E. Galbraith has scored 3 goals in 9 league games this season.
- E. Bocat has scored 2 goals in 9 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Derby
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | D | 1-1 | Wrexham (H) | 0.6 - 1.3 |
| 19 Sep | D | 1-1 | Burnley (A) | 1.8 - 0.5 |
| 12 Sep | L | 1-2 | Birmingham (H) | 1.1 - 3.2 |
| 09 Sep | L | 0-1 | West Brom (H) | 1.3 - 0.4 |
| 05 Sep | L | 0-3 | West Ham (A) | 0.1 - 3.8 |
| 01 Sep | W | 2-0 | Portsmouth (A) | 0.6 - 0.8 |
Recent form — Stoke City
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | W | 2-1 | Bolton (A) | 0.7 - 3.0 |
| 19 Sep | W | 2-1 | Sheffield Utd (H) | 0.7 - 0.4 |
| 12 Sep | W | 2-1 | Watford (A) | 1.5 - 0.4 |
| 08 Sep | D | 1-1 | Cardiff (A) | 0.8 - 2.9 |
| 05 Sep | W | 4-0 | Charlton (H) | 2.1 - 0.6 |
| 01 Sep | W | 1-0 | Norwich (H) | 0.2 - 1.4 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Derby
-0.82
xG diff/game · 0.93 for, 1.75 against
Stoke City
-0.51
xG diff/game · 0.89 for, 1.40 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | Championship | 2026/27 | 22 | 7 | 4 | 0.571 | 6–13 | LLLWL |
| Stoke City | Championship | 2026/27 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 1.429 | 11–11 | WDWWL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | home | Championship | 2026/27 | 0-1-3 | 0.8 / 2.0 | 0 |
| Stoke City | away | Championship | 2026/27 | 1-1-2 | 1.3 / 2.3 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Derby 5 wins, 2 draws, Stoke City 3 wins — 2.3 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Apr 26 | Derby | 2-0 | Stoke City |
| 09 Aug 25 | Stoke City | 3-1 | Derby |