Fixture · La Liga · Sat 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 BST
Espanyol
v Atletico Madrid
The model's read
Espanyol
33%
match result
Draw
28%
match result
Atletico Madrid
39%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Espanyol or draw | 61.1% |
| Double chance Atletico Madrid or draw | 66.6% |
| Double chance either team | 72.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.4% |
| Both teams to score | 57.5% |
| Espanyol over 1.5 team goals | 38.4% |
| Atletico Madrid over 1.5 team goals | 42.5% |
| Espanyol clean sheet | 23.5% |
| Atletico Madrid clean sheet | 26.4% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 13.2% · 1-2 8.7% · 2-1 8.0% · 0-1 7.8% · 0-0 7.4%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — Atletico Madrid: another match 3d after (2026-10-20).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Espanyol
- Espanyol are winless in their last 3 league games (D1 L2).
Atletico Madrid
- Atletico Madrid have won their last 4 league games.
- 6 of Atletico Madrid's last 6 away league games produced over 2.5 goals.
Players in form
- Roberto Fernández has scored 6 goals in 8 league games this season.
- M. Dmitrović has made 19 saves in 8 league games this season.
- Javier Hernandez has 0 goals and 5 assists in 8 league games this season.
- Álex Baena has scored 4 goals in 8 league games this season.
- J. Oblak has made 18 saves in 8 league games this season.
- Álex Grimaldo has scored 3 goals in 8 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Espanyol
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Oct | D | 1-1 | Malaga (A) | 1.1 - 0.7 |
| 18 Sep | L | 1-3 | Elche (H) | 1.1 - 1.6 |
| 15 Sep | L | 1-2 | Rayo Vallecano (A) | 1.5 - 1.5 |
| 12 Sep | W | 2-0 | Osasuna (A) | 1.4 - 1.1 |
| 06 Sep | D | 1-1 | Sevilla (H) | 1.2 - 0.5 |
| 29 Aug | L | 1-2 | Real Sociedad (A) | 0.8 - 1.8 |
Recent form — Atletico Madrid
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | W | 2-1 | Alaves (A) | 2.1 - 1.1 |
| 20 Sep | W | 2-1 | Real Madrid (H) | 2.4 - 0.3 |
| 16 Sep | W | 4-0 | Osasuna (H) | 4.0 - 0.5 |
| 13 Sep | W | 3-0 | Real Sociedad (A) | 2.0 - 0.3 |
| 09 Sep | L | 1-2 | Liverpool (A) | 0.9 - 1.6 |
| 05 Sep | L | 0-3 | Athletic Club (A) | 1.0 - 1.4 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Espanyol
+0.16
xG diff/game · 1.13 for, 0.97 against
Atletico Madrid
+0.76
xG diff/game · 1.74 for, 0.98 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Espanyol | La Liga | 2026/27 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 1.0 | 10–10 | LLWDL |
| Atletico Madrid | La Liga | 2026/27 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 2.167 | 14–6 | WWLWD |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Espanyol | home | La Liga | 2026/27 | 1-1-1 | 1.7 / 1.0 | 1 |
| Atletico Madrid | away | La Liga | 2026/27 | 1-0-1 | 1.5 / 2.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Espanyol 1 wins, 5 draws, Atletico Madrid 4 wins — 3.1 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Feb 26 | Atletico Madrid | 4-2 | Espanyol |
| 17 Aug 25 | Espanyol | 2-1 | Atletico Madrid |