Fixture · Premier League · Sat 17 Oct 2026, 12:30 BST
Everton
v Chelsea
The model's read
Everton
44%
match result
Draw
27%
match result
Chelsea
29%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Everton or draw | 70.8% |
| Double chance Chelsea or draw | 55.7% |
| Double chance either team | 73.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.6% |
| Both teams to score | 59.5% |
| Everton over 1.5 team goals | 48.6% |
| Chelsea over 1.5 team goals | 37.0% |
| Everton clean sheet | 27.5% |
| Chelsea clean sheet | 19.5% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.5% · 2-1 9.2% · 1-0 7.6% · 1-2 7.3% · 2-0 7.2%
Model readiness. Everton has played 5 league games this season, Chelsea 6 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Everton
- Everton are unbeaten in their last 5 league games (W2 D3).
Chelsea
- Chelsea have conceded in each of their last 22 league games.
- 5 of Chelsea's last 6 away league games produced over 2.5 goals.
Players in form
- T. Barry has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
- J. Pickford has made 15 saves in 5 league games this season.
- João Pedro has 5 goals and 3 assists in 5 league games this season.
- M. Rogers has scored 4 goals in 6 league games this season.
- E. Martínez has made 21 saves in 5 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Everton
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | W | 1-0 | Ipswich (H) | 2.2 - 1.4 |
| 12 Sep | D | 0-0 | Tottenham (A) | 1.1 - 0.7 |
| 06 Sep | D | 2-2 | Manchester United (H) | 1.0 - 0.7 |
| 29 Aug | D | 1-1 | Bournemouth (A) | 1.8 - 2.2 |
| 22 Aug | W | 2-0 | Crystal Palace (H) | 1.0 - 1.6 |
| 24 May | L | 0-1 | Tottenham (A) | 0.4 - 1.1 |
Recent form — Chelsea
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | W | 5-1 | Bournemouth (H) | 1.2 - 1.5 |
| 18 Sep | L | 0-3 | Brentford (A) | — |
| 12 Sep | D | 2-2 | Hull City (H) | 0.9 - 1.4 |
| 06 Sep | L | 1-2 | Arsenal (A) | 0.4 - 2.0 |
| 30 Aug | W | 4-3 | Brighton (H) | 3.0 - 1.5 |
| 24 Aug | W | 3-2 | Fulham (A) | 1.7 - 1.3 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Everton
+0.12
xG diff/game · 1.44 for, 1.33 against
Chelsea
-0.12
xG diff/game · 1.42 for, 1.54 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | Premier League | 2026/27 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 5–3 | DDDW |
| Chelsea | Premier League | 2026/27 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 10–12 | LDLWW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | home | Premier League | 2026/27 | 1-1-0 | 2.0 / 1.0 | 1 |
| Chelsea | away | Premier League | 2026/27 | 1-0-1 | 2.0 / 2.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Everton 3 wins, 3 draws, Chelsea 4 wins — 2.2 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Mar 26 | Everton | 3-0 | Chelsea |
| 13 Dec 25 | Chelsea | 2-0 | Everton |