Fixture · Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct 2026, 14:30 BST
Hamburger SV
v VfB Stuttgart
The model's read
Hamburger SV
36%
match result
Draw
25%
match result
VfB Stuttgart
39%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Hamburger SV or draw | 61.3% |
| Double chance VfB Stuttgart or draw | 63.7% |
| Double chance either team | 75.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.9% |
| Both teams to score | 66.2% |
| Hamburger SV over 1.5 team goals | 48.2% |
| VfB Stuttgart over 1.5 team goals | 50.0% |
| Hamburger SV clean sheet | 18.7% |
| VfB Stuttgart clean sheet | 19.8% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 11.1% · 1-2 8.4% · 2-1 8.1% · 2-2 6.8% · 0-2 5.2%
Model readiness. Hamburger SV has played 5 league games this season, VfB Stuttgart 6 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — VfB Stuttgart: another match 3d before (2026-10-14).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Hamburger SV
- Hamburger SV have conceded in each of their last 19 league games.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Hamburger SV's last 6 home league games.
VfB Stuttgart
- 5 of VfB Stuttgart's last 6 away league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of VfB Stuttgart's last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- Daniel Heuer Fernandes has made 16 saves in 5 league games this season.
- Y. Poulsen has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
- A. Grønbæk has 2 assists in 4 league games this season.
- J. Vagnoman has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
- F. Bredlow has made 15 saves in 5 league games this season.
- A. Stiller has 2 assists in 5 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Hamburger SV
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | W | 3-2 | 1899 Hoffenheim (A) | 1.3 - 1.1 |
| 19 Sep | W | 2-1 | 1. FC Köln (H) | 1.4 - 1.4 |
| 13 Sep | L | 0-5 | RB Leipzig (A) | 1.1 - 2.4 |
| 06 Sep | L | 0-5 | FSV Mainz 05 (H) | 0.2 - 2.8 |
| 29 Aug | L | 0-2 | Borussia Dortmund (A) | 0.9 - 1.5 |
| 16 May | D | 1-1 | Bayer Leverkusen (A) | 1.8 - 3.3 |
Recent form — VfB Stuttgart
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | W | 2-0 | SC Paderborn 07 (A) | 2.5 - 1.9 |
| 19 Sep | L | 0-1 | Borussia Dortmund (H) | 0.9 - 1.3 |
| 12 Sep | L | 1-2 | 1899 Hoffenheim (A) | 2.2 - 2.8 |
| 09 Sep | W | 3-1 | Viking (H) | — |
| 04 Sep | W | 4-1 | 1. FC Köln (H) | 3.5 - 2.9 |
| 28 Aug | L | 1-5 | Bayern München (A) | 0.9 - 3.9 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Hamburger SV
-0.86
xG diff/game · 0.98 for, 1.85 against
VfB Stuttgart
-0.60
xG diff/game · 1.96 for, 2.56 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0–12 | LLL |
| VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 6–8 | LWL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV | home | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 0-0-1 | 0.0 / 5.0 | 0 |
| VfB Stuttgart | away | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 0-0-2 | 1.0 / 3.5 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Hamburger SV 3 wins, 1 draws, VfB Stuttgart 6 wins — 4.1 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr 26 | VfB Stuttgart | 4-0 | Hamburger SV |
| 30 Nov 25 | Hamburger SV | 2-1 | VfB Stuttgart |