Fixture · Ligue 1 · Sat 17 Oct 2026, 19:45 BST
Lille
v Stade Brestois 29
The model's read
Lille
46%
match result
Draw
27%
match result
Stade Brestois 29
27%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Lille or draw | 73.2% |
| Double chance Stade Brestois 29 or draw | 54.0% |
| Double chance either team | 72.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.9% |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% |
| Lille over 1.5 team goals | 47.3% |
| Stade Brestois 29 over 1.5 team goals | 32.6% |
| Lille clean sheet | 31.1% |
| Stade Brestois 29 clean sheet | 20.3% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.9% · 2-1 9.4% · 1-0 8.9% · 2-0 8.0% · 0-0 7.5%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — Lille: another match 3d after (2026-10-21).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Lille
- Only 1 of Lille's last 6 home league games produced over 2.5 goals.
Stade Brestois 29
- Stade Brestois 29 have conceded in each of their last 15 league games.
Players in form
- B. Özer has made 19 saves in 6 league games this season.
- Tiago Santos has scored 2 goals in 6 league games this season.
- D. Bakwa has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
- K. Doumbia has scored 4 goals in 6 league games this season.
- E. Selvik has made 17 saves in 6 league games this season.
- P. Mboup has scored 2 goals in 6 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Lille
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | W | 1-0 | Le Havre (H) | 1.3 - 1.4 |
| 20 Sep | L | 1-2 | Nice (A) | 1.6 - 1.5 |
| 13 Sep | W | 2-0 | Estac Troyes (H) | 1.6 - 0.4 |
| 08 Sep | L | 2-3 | Real Betis (H) | 0.8 - 1.8 |
| 03 Sep | W | 1-0 | Toulouse (A) | 1.2 - 3.5 |
| 28 Aug | D | 2-2 | Paris Saint Germain (H) | 1.1 - 1.2 |
Recent form — Stade Brestois 29
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | W | 5-1 | Angers (H) | 3.8 - 1.4 |
| 20 Sep | L | 1-2 | Auxerre (A) | 0.3 - 1.0 |
| 13 Sep | L | 0-1 | Paris Saint Germain (H) | 1.2 - 1.2 |
| 05 Sep | W | 2-1 | Le Havre (A) | 2.4 - 2.0 |
| 29 Aug | D | 2-2 | Toulouse (H) | 2.0 - 1.1 |
| 22 Aug | D | 2-2 | Le Mans (A) | 1.6 - 0.7 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Lille
-0.24
xG diff/game · 1.30 for, 1.54 against
Stade Brestois 29
+0.67
xG diff/game · 1.90 for, 1.23 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 7–2 | WWDW |
| Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 1.25 | 6–6 | LWDD |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | home | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 0-1-0 | 2.0 / 2.0 | 0 |
| Stade Brestois 29 | away | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 1-1-0 | 2.0 / 1.5 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Lille 3 wins, 5 draws, Stade Brestois 29 2 wins — 2.4 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb 26 | Lille | 1-1 | Stade Brestois 29 |
| 17 Aug 25 | Stade Brestois 29 | 3-3 | Lille |