Fixture · Serie B · Sat 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 BST
Mantova
v Palermo
The model's read
Mantova
38%
match result
Draw
27%
match result
Palermo
35%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Mantova or draw | 64.9% |
| Double chance Palermo or draw | 61.7% |
| Double chance either team | 73.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.2% |
| Both teams to score | 61.4% |
| Mantova over 1.5 team goals | 45.4% |
| Palermo over 1.5 team goals | 43.0% |
| Mantova clean sheet | 23.2% |
| Palermo clean sheet | 21.5% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.3% · 2-1 8.6% · 1-2 8.2% · 1-0 6.5% · 2-2 6.3%
Model readiness. Mantova has played 5 league games this season, Palermo 6 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Young rating. This league joined the model this season, so the numbers
above are built on a first season of data only — a small sample with no prior
seasons behind it. Read them with more caution than the established six leagues. No
picks are generated from young leagues; how well these reads age is scored in public,
separately, on the calibration page.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Mantova
- Mantova are unbeaten in their last 5 league games (W3 D2).
Palermo
- Palermo are unbeaten in their last 7 league games (W6 D1).
- Both teams have scored in each of Palermo's last 5 league games.
Recent form — Mantova
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | D | 2-2 | Pisa (H) | — |
| 13 Sep | W | 2-0 | Sampdoria (H) | 1.1 - 1.8 |
| 06 Sep | D | 1-1 | Cesena (A) | 0.4 - 1.3 |
| 30 Aug | W | 3-1 | Empoli (H) | 1.1 - 0.4 |
| 22 Aug | W | 2-1 | Carrarese (A) | 1.1 - 0.8 |
| 08 May | L | 0-5 | Frosinone (A) | 1.2 - 1.9 |
Recent form — Palermo
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | W | 4-2 | Empoli (A) | 4.8 - 2.0 |
| 19 Sep | W | 2-1 | Padova (H) | 2.5 - 1.2 |
| 13 Sep | D | 1-1 | Avellino (A) | 0.6 - 1.9 |
| 07 Sep | W | 3-1 | Sampdoria (H) | — |
| 30 Aug | W | 3-2 | Arezzo (A) | 1.6 - 1.5 |
| 23 Aug | W | 1-0 | Juve Stabia (H) | 1.1 - 0.8 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Mantova
-0.10
xG diff/game · 0.95 for, 1.05 against
Palermo
+0.64
xG diff/game · 2.12 for, 1.48 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mantova | Serie B | 2026/27 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 8–3 | WDWW |
| Palermo | Serie B | 2026/27 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 8–4 | DWWW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mantova | home | Serie B | 2026/27 | 1-0-0 | 3.0 / 1.0 | 0 |
| Palermo | away | Serie B | 2026/27 | 1-0-0 | 3.0 / 2.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 4 meetings: Mantova 0 wins, 3 draws, Palermo 1 wins — 2.25 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Mar 26 | Palermo | 2-1 | Mantova |
| 11 Jan 26 | Mantova | 1-1 | Palermo |