Fixture · Championship · Sat 17 Oct 2026, 12:30 BST
Middlesbrough
v Cardiff
The model's read
Middlesbrough
56%
match result
Draw
24%
match result
Cardiff
21%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Middlesbrough or draw | 79.1% |
| Double chance Cardiff or draw | 44.5% |
| Double chance either team | 76.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.4% |
| Both teams to score | 60.1% |
| Middlesbrough over 1.5 team goals | 58.9% |
| Cardiff over 1.5 team goals | 32.2% |
| Middlesbrough clean sheet | 31.4% |
| Cardiff clean sheet | 13.8% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 10.9% · 2-1 9.8% · 2-0 8.5% · 1-0 7.6% · 3-1 6.5%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Middlesbrough
- Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their last 7 league games (W4 D3).
- Middlesbrough have averaged 2.0 goals a game across their last 6 home league games.
Cardiff
- Cardiff have not won any of their last 5 away league games (D1 L4).
- Cardiff have conceded in each of their last 9 league games.
Players in form
- W. Lankshear has scored 7 goals in 9 league games this season.
- R. Vítek has made 21 saves in 9 league games this season.
- S. Berhalter has scored 2 goals in 9 league games this season.
- N. Trott has made 32 saves in 9 league games this season.
- J. Moylan has scored 3 goals in 9 league games this season.
- Cian Ashford has scored 2 goals in 9 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Middlesbrough
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | W | 1-0 | Wolves (H) | 1.0 - 0.6 |
| 19 Sep | D | 2-2 | Birmingham (A) | 2.1 - 1.2 |
| 15 Sep | D | 2-2 | Millwall (H) | 1.5 - 1.7 |
| 12 Sep | W | 4-3 | Norwich (H) | 2.4 - 1.8 |
| 05 Sep | W | 1-0 | QPR (A) | 2.5 - 1.0 |
| 02 Sep | D | 1-1 | Burnley (A) | 1.2 - 0.6 |
Recent form — Cardiff
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | L | 1-2 | Blackburn (A) | 1.1 - 1.8 |
| 19 Sep | W | 3-1 | Charlton (H) | 2.6 - 1.3 |
| 12 Sep | L | 0-1 | Bolton (A) | 1.8 - 0.5 |
| 08 Sep | D | 1-1 | Stoke City (H) | 2.9 - 0.8 |
| 05 Sep | L | 0-2 | Portsmouth (A) | 1.4 - 2.1 |
| 02 Sep | L | 1-2 | QPR (A) | 0.6 - 2.1 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Middlesbrough
+0.73
xG diff/game · 1.79 for, 1.06 against
Cardiff
+0.29
xG diff/game · 1.68 for, 1.39 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | Championship | 2026/27 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 14–10 | DWWDW |
| Cardiff | Championship | 2026/27 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 0.571 | 7–11 | LDLLD |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | home | Championship | 2026/27 | 3-0-0 | 3.0 / 1.7 | 0 |
| Cardiff | away | Championship | 2026/27 | 0-1-3 | 0.8 / 1.8 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Middlesbrough 6 wins, 3 draws, Cardiff 1 wins — 2.8 goals a game on average.
Match-by-match detail predates the fixtures this site tracks; the summary above comes from the head-to-head archive.