Fixture · Premier League · Sat 17 Oct 2026, 17:30 BST
Newcastle
v Aston Villa
The model's read
Newcastle
42%
match result
Draw
27%
match result
Aston Villa
31%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Newcastle or draw | 69.3% |
| Double chance Aston Villa or draw | 57.7% |
| Double chance either team | 73.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.4% |
| Both teams to score | 58.9% |
| Newcastle over 1.5 team goals | 46.4% |
| Aston Villa over 1.5 team goals | 37.5% |
| Newcastle clean sheet | 27.1% |
| Aston Villa clean sheet | 20.9% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.7% · 2-1 9.1% · 1-0 7.7% · 1-2 7.6% · 2-0 6.9%
Model readiness. Newcastle has played 5 league games this season, Aston Villa 7 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — Aston Villa: another match 3d before (2026-10-14).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Newcastle
- 6 of Newcastle's last 6 home league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 6 of Newcastle's last 6 home league games.
- Newcastle have averaged 2.2 goals a game across their last 6 home league games.
Players in form
- L. Horníček has made 19 saves in 5 league games this season.
- A. Elanga has scored 2 goals in 3 league games this season.
- J. Willock has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
- Z. Suzuki has made 18 saves in 6 league games this season.
- N. Jackson has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
- J. McGinn has 1 goal and 2 assists in 6 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Newcastle
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | W | 2-1 | Hull City (H) | 1.4 - 1.6 |
| 14 Sep | L | 1-4 | Leeds (A) | 0.9 - 2.1 |
| 05 Sep | D | 2-2 | Bournemouth (H) | 0.7 - 1.4 |
| 29 Aug | W | 2-0 | Tottenham (A) | 0.7 - 1.1 |
| 23 Aug | D | 2-2 | Liverpool (H) | 1.4 - 2.2 |
| 24 May | L | 0-2 | Fulham (A) | 0.3 - 1.8 |
Recent form — Aston Villa
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | D | 2-2 | Brentford (H) | 1.8 - 1.3 |
| 19 Sep | W | 3-2 | Tottenham (A) | 1.2 - 1.6 |
| 12 Sep | L | 1-2 | Nottingham Forest (H) | 0.8 - 2.3 |
| 08 Sep | W | 3-2 | Club Brugge KV (A) | 3.2 - 1.5 |
| 05 Sep | D | 0-0 | Hull City (A) | 1.9 - 0.6 |
| 31 Aug | L | 0-1 | Arsenal (H) | 0.3 - 1.1 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Newcastle
-0.64
xG diff/game · 1.03 for, 1.68 against
Aston Villa
-0.67
xG diff/game · 1.06 for, 1.73 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | Premier League | 2026/27 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 1.25 | 7–8 | LDWD |
| Aston Villa | Premier League | 2026/27 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0.25 | 1–7 | LDLL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | home | Premier League | 2026/27 | 0-2-0 | 2.0 / 2.0 | 0 |
| Aston Villa | away | Premier League | 2026/27 | 0-1-1 | 0.0 / 2.0 | 1 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Newcastle 5 wins, 2 draws, Aston Villa 3 wins — 3.7 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jan 26 | Newcastle | 0-2 | Aston Villa |
| 16 Aug 25 | Aston Villa | 0-0 | Newcastle |