Fixture · Championship · Sat 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 BST
Southampton
v Bolton
The model's read
Southampton
49%
match result
Draw
26%
match result
Bolton
25%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Southampton or draw | 74.6% |
| Double chance Bolton or draw | 51.4% |
| Double chance either team | 74.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.4% |
| Both teams to score | 58.4% |
| Southampton over 1.5 team goals | 51.3% |
| Bolton over 1.5 team goals | 33.5% |
| Southampton clean sheet | 30.3% |
| Bolton clean sheet | 17.9% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.3% · 2-1 9.6% · 1-0 8.2% · 2-0 8.0% · 1-2 6.7%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — Southampton: another match 3d before (2026-10-14).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Southampton
- Southampton have won 5 of their last 6 home league games.
- Both teams have scored in each of Southampton's last 9 league games.
- 6 of Southampton's last 6 home league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Southampton have conceded in each of their last 9 league games.
Players in form
- C. Larin has scored 7 goals in 8 league games this season.
- Daniel Peretz has made 22 saves in 8 league games this season.
- F. Azaz has 3 goals and 4 assists in 8 league games this season.
- T. Gale has scored 3 goals in 9 league games this season.
- S. Dalby has scored 3 goals in 9 league games this season.
- G. Bazunu has made 17 saves in 7 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Southampton
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | L | 1-2 | Wrexham (A) | 2.1 - 0.5 |
| 12 Sep | W | 4-1 | Bristol City (H) | 1.7 - 2.2 |
| 08 Sep | W | 3-1 | Swansea (H) | 1.4 - 1.2 |
| 05 Sep | D | 1-1 | Lincoln (A) | 0.8 - 2.3 |
| 01 Sep | D | 1-1 | Birmingham (A) | 1.0 - 1.6 |
| 29 Aug | W | 5-1 | Millwall (H) | 3.6 - 1.4 |
Recent form — Bolton
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | L | 1-2 | Stoke City (H) | 3.0 - 0.7 |
| 20 Sep | W | 4-3 | Norwich (A) | 1.1 - 0.7 |
| 12 Sep | W | 1-0 | Cardiff (H) | 0.5 - 1.8 |
| 08 Sep | L | 2-3 | West Ham (H) | 1.6 - 2.2 |
| 05 Sep | L | 0-4 | Millwall (A) | 0.9 - 2.6 |
| 01 Sep | L | 2-3 | Sheffield Utd (A) | 1.9 - 2.2 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Southampton
+0.29
xG diff/game · 1.61 for, 1.32 against
Bolton
-0.10
xG diff/game · 1.34 for, 1.43 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | Championship | 2026/27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 1.429 | 18–8 | WWDDW |
| Bolton | Championship | 2026/27 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 1.0 | 7–12 | WLLLL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | home | Championship | 2026/27 | 4-0-0 | 3.8 / 1.0 | 0 |
| Bolton | away | Championship | 2026/27 | 0-1-2 | 0.7 / 2.3 | 1 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
No meetings on record.