Fixture · Ligue 1 · Sat 17 Oct 2026, 16:15 BST
Strasbourg
v Paris Saint Germain
The model's read
Strasbourg
29%
match result
Draw
26%
match result
Paris Saint Germain
45%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Strasbourg or draw | 55.2% |
| Double chance Paris Saint Germain or draw | 70.9% |
| Double chance either team | 74.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.5% |
| Both teams to score | 60.9% |
| Strasbourg over 1.5 team goals | 38.2% |
| Paris Saint Germain over 1.5 team goals | 50.2% |
| Strasbourg clean sheet | 18.5% |
| Paris Saint Germain clean sheet | 26.6% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.1% · 1-2 9.3% · 2-1 7.3% · 0-1 7.2% · 0-2 7.0%
Model readiness. Strasbourg has played 5 league games this season, Paris Saint Germain 7 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — Paris Saint Germain: another match 3d before (2026-10-14).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Strasbourg
- Strasbourg have conceded in each of their last 13 league games.
- 5 of Strasbourg's last 6 home league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams have scored in each of Strasbourg's last 4 league games.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Strasbourg's last 6 home league games.
Paris Saint Germain
- Paris Saint Germain have won their last 3 league games.
Players in form
- F. Jörgensen has made 21 saves in 5 league games this season.
- S. Amo-Ameyaw has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
- Gessime Yassine has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
- Ferran Torres has scored 4 goals in 6 league games this season.
- Marquinhos has scored 3 goals in 6 league games this season.
- M. Safonov has made 13 saves in 6 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Strasbourg
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | L | 1-2 | Paris FC (A) | 0.2 - 1.1 |
| 12 Sep | D | 1-1 | Monaco (H) | 1.0 - 1.1 |
| 06 Sep | W | 6-2 | Estac Troyes (A) | 3.0 - 2.9 |
| 29 Aug | W | 2-1 | Lens (H) | 1.7 - 2.9 |
| 21 Aug | L | 0-4 | Marseille (A) | 0.2 - 1.8 |
| 17 May | W | 5-4 | Monaco (H) | 1.5 - 1.1 |
Recent form — Paris Saint Germain
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | W | 3-1 | Le Mans (H) | 4.2 - 1.6 |
| 20 Sep | W | 2-1 | Marseille (A) | — |
| 13 Sep | W | 1-0 | Stade Brestois 29 (A) | 1.2 - 1.2 |
| 09 Sep | W | 6-1 | Slovan Bratislava (H) | — |
| 04 Sep | L | 1-2 | Monaco (H) | 2.3 - 0.5 |
| 28 Aug | D | 2-2 | Lille (A) | 1.2 - 1.1 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Strasbourg
-0.73
xG diff/game · 1.21 for, 1.94 against
Paris Saint Germain
+1.05
xG diff/game · 2.09 for, 1.04 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 1.75 | 9–8 | DWWL |
| Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 1.25 | 6–6 | WLDD |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg | home | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 1-1-0 | 1.5 / 1.0 | 0 |
| Paris Saint Germain | away | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 0-2-0 | 2.0 / 2.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Strasbourg 1 wins, 3 draws, Paris Saint Germain 6 wins — 4.1 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Feb 26 | Strasbourg | 1-2 | Paris Saint Germain |
| 17 Oct 25 | Paris Saint Germain | 3-3 | Strasbourg |