Fixture · Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct 2026, 14:30 BST
Union Berlin
v Borussia Dortmund
The model's read
Union Berlin
34%
match result
Draw
26%
match result
Borussia Dortmund
39%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Union Berlin or draw | 60.9% |
| Double chance Borussia Dortmund or draw | 65.5% |
| Double chance either team | 73.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.8% |
| Both teams to score | 61.8% |
| Union Berlin over 1.5 team goals | 42.8% |
| Borussia Dortmund over 1.5 team goals | 46.4% |
| Union Berlin clean sheet | 20.9% |
| Borussia Dortmund clean sheet | 23.2% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.2% · 1-2 8.7% · 2-1 8.1% · 0-1 6.5% · 2-2 6.3%
Model readiness. Union Berlin has played 5 league games this season, Borussia Dortmund 6 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — Borussia Dortmund: another match 3d before (2026-10-14).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Union Berlin
- 5 of Union Berlin's last 6 home league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Union Berlin have averaged 2.0 goals a game across their last 6 home league games.
Borussia Dortmund
- Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in their last 7 league games (W6 D1).
Players in form
- F. Rønnow has made 20 saves in 4 league games this season.
- T. Skarke has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
- J. Juranović has 2 assists in 3 league games this season.
- S. Guirassy has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
- F. Nmecha has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
- Fábio Silva has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Union Berlin
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | W | 1-0 | SV Elversberg (H) | 1.6 - 0.3 |
| 18 Sep | L | 0-7 | Bayern München (A) | — |
| 11 Sep | L | 1-3 | FC Schalke 04 (H) | 1.9 - 2.5 |
| 05 Sep | L | 0-4 | Bayer Leverkusen (A) | 0.4 - 3.1 |
| 29 Aug | D | 3-3 | Eintracht Frankfurt (H) | 1.8 - 1.5 |
| 16 May | W | 4-0 | FC Augsburg (H) | 3.7 - 0.6 |
Recent form — Borussia Dortmund
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Oct | D | 2-2 | Werder Bremen (H) | 2.5 - 1.2 |
| 19 Sep | W | 1-0 | VfB Stuttgart (A) | 1.3 - 0.9 |
| 12 Sep | W | 3-0 | SC Paderborn 07 (H) | 1.8 - 0.5 |
| 08 Sep | W | 3-2 | Villarreal (H) | 2.8 - 1.3 |
| 05 Sep | W | 3-2 | 1899 Hoffenheim (A) | 2.0 - 1.2 |
| 29 Aug | W | 2-0 | Hamburger SV (H) | 1.5 - 0.9 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Union Berlin
-0.40
xG diff/game · 1.44 for, 1.84 against
Borussia Dortmund
+0.90
xG diff/game · 1.83 for, 0.93 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 0.25 | 4–17 | LLLD |
| Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 8–2 | WWW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin | home | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 0-1-1 | 2.0 / 3.0 | 0 |
| Borussia Dortmund | away | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 1-0-0 | 3.0 / 2.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Union Berlin 2 wins, 0 draws, Borussia Dortmund 8 wins — 3.7 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jan 26 | Union Berlin | 0-3 | Borussia Dortmund |
| 31 Aug 25 | Borussia Dortmund | 3-0 | Union Berlin |