Fixture · La Liga · Sat 17 Oct 2026, 20:00 BST
Valencia
v Athletic Club
The model's read
Valencia
34%
match result
Draw
32%
match result
Athletic Club
34%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Valencia or draw | 66.1% |
| Double chance Athletic Club or draw | 66.0% |
| Double chance either team | 67.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.5% |
| Both teams to score | 45.2% |
| Valencia over 1.5 team goals | 29.6% |
| Athletic Club over 1.5 team goals | 29.5% |
| Valencia clean sheet | 33.8% |
| Athletic Club clean sheet | 33.8% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 14.8% · 0-0 12.8% · 1-0 11.1% · 0-1 11.0% · 2-1 7.3%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Athletic Club
- Athletic Club are unbeaten in their last 4 league games (W2 D2).
Players in form
- S. Dimitrievski has made 22 saves in 7 league games this season.
- Unai Simón has made 17 saves in 6 league games this season.
- Robert Navarro has scored 2 goals in 6 league games this season.
- I. Williams has 1 goal and 2 assists in 6 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Valencia
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | L | 2-3 | Real Sociedad (H) | — |
| 15 Sep | W | 1-0 | Alaves (A) | 0.7 - 1.1 |
| 11 Sep | L | 0-1 | Sevilla (A) | 0.1 - 0.9 |
| 06 Sep | L | 0-5 | Barcelona (H) | 0.7 - 4.1 |
| 30 Aug | L | 1-3 | Deportivo La Coruna (A) | 1.3 - 1.4 |
| 25 Aug | L | 0-1 | Real Betis (H) | 1.2 - 0.7 |
Recent form — Athletic Club
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | D | 0-0 | Alaves (H) | 1.6 - 0.1 |
| 12 Sep | D | 1-1 | Elche (H) | 2.4 - 0.8 |
| 05 Sep | W | 3-0 | Atletico Madrid (H) | 1.4 - 1.0 |
| 30 Aug | W | 2-0 | Celta Vigo (A) | 2.6 - 0.6 |
| 27 Aug | L | 0-2 | Barcelona (A) | 0.2 - 3.9 |
| 22 Aug | L | 1-3 | Sevilla (H) | 0.0 - 0.0 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Valencia
-0.73
xG diff/game · 0.75 for, 1.47 against
Athletic Club
+0.32
xG diff/game · 1.38 for, 1.06 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | La Liga | 2026/27 | 19 | 6 | 4 | 0.667 | 2–10 | WLLLL |
| Athletic Club | La Liga | 2026/27 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 7–6 | DWWLL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | home | La Liga | 2026/27 | 0-1-2 | 0.0 / 2.0 | 1 |
| Athletic Club | away | La Liga | 2026/27 | 1-0-1 | 1.0 / 1.0 | 1 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Valencia 3 wins, 1 draws, Athletic Club 6 wins — 2.1 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 May 26 | Athletic Club | 0-1 | Valencia |
| 20 Sep 25 | Valencia | 2-0 | Athletic Club |