Fixture · La Liga · Sat 17 Oct 2026, 15:15 BST
Villarreal
v Elche
The model's read
Villarreal
63%
match result
Draw
22%
match result
Elche
15%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Villarreal or draw | 84.7% |
| Double chance Elche or draw | 36.8% |
| Double chance either team | 78.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.2% |
| Both teams to score | 56.2% |
| Villarreal over 1.5 team goals | 63.3% |
| Elche over 1.5 team goals | 25.8% |
| Villarreal clean sheet | 37.5% |
| Elche clean sheet | 11.6% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 10.1% · 2-0 10.1% · 2-1 9.9% · 1-0 8.5% · 3-0 7.2%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — Villarreal: another match 3d after (2026-10-20).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Villarreal
- Villarreal have conceded in each of their last 22 league games.
- 6 of Villarreal's last 6 home league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 6 of Villarreal's last 6 home league games.
- Villarreal have averaged 3.0 goals a game across their last 6 home league games.
Elche
- Both teams have scored in each of Elche's last 5 league games.
- Elche have conceded in each of their last 8 league games.
- Both teams scored in 6 of Elche's last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- P. Gueye has scored 3 goals in 8 league games this season.
- Alberto Moleiro has 2 goals and 3 assists in 8 league games this season.
- N. Pépé has scored 2 goals in 7 league games this season.
- Fer Niño has scored 5 goals in 7 league games this season.
- M. Dituro has made 18 saves in 7 league games this season.
- Tete Morente has 0 goals and 3 assists in 7 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Villarreal
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | L | 0-1 | Real Madrid (A) | 0.6 - 1.0 |
| 20 Sep | W | 3-1 | Levante (H) | 4.3 - 0.5 |
| 17 Sep | W | 3-1 | Malaga (A) | 3.3 - 0.6 |
| 14 Sep | L | 1-2 | Real Betis (H) | 1.9 - 3.5 |
| 08 Sep | L | 2-3 | Borussia Dortmund (A) | 1.3 - 2.8 |
| 05 Sep | L | 2-3 | Deportivo La Coruna (H) | 1.1 - 0.8 |
Recent form — Elche
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep | W | 3-1 | Espanyol (A) | 1.6 - 1.1 |
| 15 Sep | L | 2-3 | Real Madrid (H) | 0.8 - 3.6 |
| 12 Sep | D | 1-1 | Athletic Club (A) | 0.8 - 2.4 |
| 07 Sep | L | 2-3 | Real Sociedad (H) | 2.5 - 0.6 |
| 28 Aug | L | 2-3 | Racing Santander (A) | 1.0 - 1.5 |
| 23 Aug | L | 0-5 | Barcelona (H) | 0.7 - 4.1 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Villarreal
+0.84
xG diff/game · 2.07 for, 1.23 against
Elche
-0.67
xG diff/game · 1.26 for, 1.93 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | La Liga | 2026/27 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 0.833 | 10–11 | WLLLD |
| Elche | La Liga | 2026/27 | 17 | 7 | 5 | 0.714 | 11–17 | WLDLL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | home | La Liga | 2026/27 | 0-0-1 | 2.0 / 3.0 | 0 |
| Elche | away | La Liga | 2026/27 | 0-2-1 | 1.3 / 1.7 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Villarreal 5 wins, 3 draws, Elche 2 wins — 3.0 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Mar 26 | Villarreal | 2-1 | Elche |
| 03 Jan 26 | Elche | 1-3 | Villarreal |