Fixture · Championship · Sat 17 Oct 2026, 12:30 BST
Watford
v Charlton
The model's read
Watford
36%
match result
Draw
31%
match result
Charlton
33%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Watford or draw | 66.8% |
| Double chance Charlton or draw | 64.1% |
| Double chance either team | 69.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.4% |
| Both teams to score | 48.4% |
| Watford over 1.5 team goals | 33.2% |
| Charlton over 1.5 team goals | 31.3% |
| Watford clean sheet | 32.3% |
| Charlton clean sheet | 30.5% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 14.5% · 0-0 11.2% · 1-0 10.4% · 0-1 9.8% · 2-1 7.8%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Watford
- Watford have lost their last 3 league games.
- Watford have conceded in each of their last 16 league games.
- 5 of Watford's last 6 home league games produced over 2.5 goals.
Charlton
- Charlton are winless in their last 6 league games (D4 L2).
Players in form
- F. Ravaglia has made 32 saves in 9 league games this season.
- Amin Nabizada has scored 3 goals in 9 league games this season.
- A. Okonkwo has made 21 saves in 8 league games this season.
- L. Jones has scored 2 goals in 9 league games this season.
- Tyreece Campbell has scored 2 goals in 4 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Watford
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | L | 0-4 | Burnley (H) | 0.6 - 1.9 |
| 18 Sep | L | 0-1 | Bristol City (A) | — |
| 12 Sep | L | 1-2 | Stoke City (H) | 0.4 - 1.5 |
| 08 Sep | W | 2-1 | Preston (H) | 1.3 - 2.4 |
| 05 Sep | L | 0-1 | West Brom (A) | 1.3 - 1.1 |
| 01 Sep | L | 0-2 | Swansea (A) | 0.9 - 2.7 |
Recent form — Charlton
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | D | 1-1 | Bristol City (H) | 2.0 - 1.6 |
| 19 Sep | L | 1-3 | Cardiff (A) | 1.3 - 2.6 |
| 12 Sep | D | 0-0 | Portsmouth (H) | 0.8 - 0.4 |
| 09 Sep | D | 0-0 | QPR (H) | 0.5 - 1.1 |
| 05 Sep | L | 0-4 | Stoke City (A) | 0.6 - 2.1 |
| 02 Sep | D | 1-1 | West Brom (A) | 0.4 - 0.6 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Watford
-0.73
xG diff/game · 0.90 for, 1.63 against
Charlton
-0.36
xG diff/game · 0.85 for, 1.22 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford | Championship | 2026/27 | 17 | 8 | 8 | 1.0 | 7–10 | LLWLL |
| Charlton | Championship | 2026/27 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 1.714 | 6–7 | DDLDW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford | home | Championship | 2026/27 | 2-1-1 | 1.5 / 1.3 | 0 |
| Charlton | away | Championship | 2026/27 | 1-1-1 | 1.0 / 2.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 8 meetings: Watford 2 wins, 2 draws, Charlton 4 wins — 3.12 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Apr 26 | Watford | 1-1 | Charlton |
| 09 Aug 25 | Charlton | 1-0 | Watford |