Fixture · Serie A · Sun 18 Oct 2026, 17:00 BST
AC Milan
v Atalanta
The model's read
AC Milan
42%
match result
Draw
29%
match result
Atalanta
29%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance AC Milan or draw | 71.3% |
| Double chance Atalanta or draw | 57.9% |
| Double chance either team | 70.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.4% |
| Both teams to score | 51.7% |
| AC Milan over 1.5 team goals | 40.6% |
| Atalanta over 1.5 team goals | 30.5% |
| AC Milan clean sheet | 32.9% |
| Atalanta clean sheet | 24.8% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 13.9% · 1-0 10.1% · 0-0 9.4% · 2-1 8.8% · 2-0 7.9%
Model readiness. AC Milan has played 7 league games this season, Atalanta 5 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — AC Milan: another match 3d before (2026-10-15).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
AC Milan
- AC Milan are unbeaten in their last 6 league games (W3 D3).
Atalanta
- Atalanta have lost their last 3 league games.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Atalanta's last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- A. Rabiot has scored 3 goals in 6 league games this season.
- Diego Moreira has scored 3 goals in 6 league games this season.
- M. Maignan has made 16 saves in 6 league games this season.
- Marco Carnesecchi has made 25 saves in 5 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — AC Milan
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | D | 1-1 | Sassuolo (A) | 1.2 - 1.3 |
| 20 Sep | W | 3-0 | Lecce (H) | 1.9 - 0.2 |
| 16 Sep | L | 0-2 | Benfica (H) | 1.0 - 0.6 |
| 12 Sep | D | 2-2 | Lazio (A) | 1.1 - 2.0 |
| 06 Sep | D | 1-1 | Juventus (A) | 0.1 - 1.6 |
| 28 Aug | W | 2-0 | Venezia (H) | 2.1 - 0.7 |
Recent form — Atalanta
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | L | 0-2 | Juventus (A) | 0.6 - 1.3 |
| 12 Sep | L | 1-2 | Cagliari (H) | 1.2 - 1.1 |
| 05 Sep | L | 1-2 | AS Roma (A) | 0.7 - 3.0 |
| 31 Aug | W | 1-0 | Bologna (H) | 0.2 - 1.3 |
| 23 Aug | W | 2-1 | Sassuolo (H) | 0.7 - 2.7 |
| 22 May | D | 1-1 | Fiorentina (A) | 1.4 - 0.8 |
Chance quality, most recent season
AC Milan
+0.23
xG diff/game · 1.34 for, 1.12 against
Atalanta
-1.20
xG diff/game · 0.67 for, 1.87 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | Serie A | 2026/27 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 10–4 | WDDWW |
| Atalanta | Serie A | 2026/27 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 5–7 | LLLWW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | home | Serie A | 2026/27 | 1-0-0 | 2.0 / 0.0 | 1 |
| Atalanta | away | Serie A | 2026/27 | 0-0-1 | 1.0 / 2.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: AC Milan 2 wins, 3 draws, Atalanta 5 wins — 2.7 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 May 26 | AC Milan | 2-3 | Atalanta |
| 28 Oct 25 | Atalanta | 1-1 | AC Milan |