Fixture · Bundesliga · Sun 18 Oct 2026, 14:30 BST
Bayer Leverkusen
v SC Freiburg
The model's read
Bayer Leverkusen
50%
match result
Draw
25%
match result
SC Freiburg
26%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Bayer Leverkusen or draw | 74.5% |
| Double chance SC Freiburg or draw | 50.1% |
| Double chance either team | 75.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.2% |
| Both teams to score | 62.6% |
| Bayer Leverkusen over 1.5 team goals | 55.9% |
| SC Freiburg over 1.5 team goals | 37.3% |
| Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet | 27.3% |
| SC Freiburg clean sheet | 15.3% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 11.2% · 2-1 9.6% · 2-0 7.3% · 1-0 6.8% · 1-2 6.6%
Model readiness. Bayer Leverkusen has played 6 league games this season, SC Freiburg 5 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — Bayer Leverkusen: another match 3d before (2026-10-15).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Bayer Leverkusen
- Bayer Leverkusen are unbeaten in their last 4 league games (W3 D1).
- Bayer Leverkusen have averaged 3.0 goals a game across their last 6 home league games.
SC Freiburg
- SC Freiburg are unbeaten in their last 6 league games (W5 D1).
Players in form
- P. Schick has scored 5 goals in 5 league games this season.
- Miguel Gutiérrez has 1 goal and 3 assists in 5 league games this season.
- Christian Kofane has scored 2 goals in 4 league games this season.
- Y. Suzuki has scored 4 goals in 5 league games this season.
- M. Eggestein has scored 3 goals in 5 league games this season.
- I. Matanović has scored 3 goals in 5 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Bayer Leverkusen
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | W | 4-3 | FSV Mainz 05 (A) | 1.7 - 2.9 |
| 20 Sep | W | 2-0 | RB Leipzig (H) | 2.3 - 1.0 |
| 16 Sep | W | 2-0 | Celje (H) | 1.9 - 0.9 |
| 12 Sep | D | 2-2 | FC Augsburg (A) | 2.6 - 1.1 |
| 05 Sep | W | 4-0 | Union Berlin (H) | 3.1 - 0.4 |
| 29 Aug | L | 2-3 | SV Elversberg (A) | 1.9 - 1.3 |
Recent form — SC Freiburg
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | W | 2-1 | FC Schalke 04 (H) | 1.1 - 0.3 |
| 19 Sep | D | 2-2 | Eintracht Frankfurt (A) | 3.1 - 2.2 |
| 12 Sep | W | 5-0 | Borussia Mönchengladbach (H) | 2.6 - 0.2 |
| 05 Sep | W | 1-0 | SC Paderborn 07 (A) | 1.2 - 0.8 |
| 30 Aug | W | 4-1 | Werder Bremen (H) | 1.9 - 0.5 |
| 16 May | W | 4-1 | RB Leipzig (H) | 1.4 - 1.2 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Bayer Leverkusen
+0.99
xG diff/game · 2.32 for, 1.33 against
SC Freiburg
+1.20
xG diff/game · 1.99 for, 0.79 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 14–8 | WWDWL |
| SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 12–3 | DWWW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | home | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 1-0-0 | 4.0 / 0.0 | 1 |
| SC Freiburg | away | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 1-0-0 | 1.0 / 0.0 | 1 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Bayer Leverkusen 5 wins, 3 draws, SC Freiburg 2 wins — 3.9 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Mar 26 | SC Freiburg | 3-3 | Bayer Leverkusen |
| 26 Oct 25 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2-0 | SC Freiburg |