Fixture · Premier League · Sun 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 BST
Bournemouth
v Sunderland
The model's read
Bournemouth
40%
match result
Draw
26%
match result
Sunderland
34%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Bournemouth or draw | 66.1% |
| Double chance Sunderland or draw | 60.2% |
| Double chance either team | 73.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.0% |
| Both teams to score | 61.9% |
| Bournemouth over 1.5 team goals | 47.0% |
| Sunderland over 1.5 team goals | 42.5% |
| Bournemouth clean sheet | 23.5% |
| Sunderland clean sheet | 20.5% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.2% · 2-1 8.8% · 1-2 8.0% · 1-0 6.5% · 2-2 6.3%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — Bournemouth: another match 3d before (2026-10-15).
Rotation risk — Sunderland: another match 3d before (2026-10-15).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Bournemouth
- Bournemouth are winless in their last 8 league games (D5 L3).
- Bournemouth have conceded in each of their last 8 league games.
Sunderland
- Sunderland have lost their last 3 league games.
- Sunderland are winless in their last 4 league games (D1 L3).
- Both teams scored in 6 of Sunderland's last 6 away league games.
- Sunderland have averaged 2.0 goals a game across their last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- M. Tavernier has scored 3 goals in 6 league games this season.
- Evanilson has 1 goal and 3 assists in 6 league games this season.
- Đ. Petrović has made 12 saves in 6 league games this season.
- B. Brobbey has scored 3 goals in 5 league games this season.
- R. Roefs has made 8 saves in 6 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Bournemouth
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | L | 1-5 | Chelsea (A) | 1.5 - 1.2 |
| 20 Sep | L | 0-1 | Liverpool (H) | 0.8 - 1.6 |
| 17 Sep | W | 2-1 | Real Sociedad (A) | — |
| 12 Sep | D | 2-2 | Brentford (H) | 1.8 - 0.5 |
| 05 Sep | D | 2-2 | Newcastle (A) | 1.4 - 0.7 |
| 29 Aug | D | 1-1 | Everton (H) | 2.2 - 1.8 |
Recent form — Sunderland
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | L | 0-2 | Brighton (H) | 0.7 - 1.1 |
| 20 Sep | L | 3-5 | Manchester City (A) | 3.6 - 2.8 |
| 16 Sep | W | 1-0 | AZ Alkmaar (H) | 2.9 - 1.5 |
| 12 Sep | L | 0-2 | Arsenal (H) | 1.8 - 1.9 |
| 05 Sep | D | 1-1 | Brentford (A) | 1.7 - 1.2 |
| 30 Aug | W | 1-0 | Fulham (H) | 1.8 - 0.9 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Bournemouth
+0.00
xG diff/game · 1.37 for, 1.37 against
Sunderland
+0.10
xG diff/game · 1.70 for, 1.60 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | Premier League | 2026/27 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 0.5 | 7–13 | LLDDD |
| Sunderland | Premier League | 2026/27 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 0.667 | 6–12 | LLLDW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | home | Premier League | 2026/27 | 0-2-0 | 1.5 / 1.5 | 0 |
| Sunderland | away | Premier League | 2026/27 | 0-1-1 | 1.0 / 1.5 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 6 meetings: Bournemouth 2 wins, 2 draws, Sunderland 2 wins — 2.5 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Feb 26 | Bournemouth | 1-1 | Sunderland |
| 29 Nov 25 | Sunderland | 3-2 | Bournemouth |