Fixture · Premier League · Sun 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 BST
Brighton
v Crystal Palace
The model's read
Brighton
57%
match result
Draw
22%
match result
Crystal Palace
21%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Brighton or draw | 79.5% |
| Double chance Crystal Palace or draw | 42.9% |
| Double chance either team | 77.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.4% |
| Both teams to score | 63.3% |
| Brighton over 1.5 team goals | 62.9% |
| Crystal Palace over 1.5 team goals | 34.9% |
| Brighton clean sheet | 29.2% |
| Crystal Palace clean sheet | 11.8% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 10.0% · 2-1 9.7% · 2-0 7.9% · 3-1 6.9% · 1-0 6.5%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — Crystal Palace: another match 3d before (2026-10-15).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Brighton
- Brighton have won their last 3 league games.
- Brighton have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 3 league games.
- Brighton are unbeaten in their last 4 league games (W3 D1).
- 5 of Brighton's last 6 home league games produced over 2.5 goals.
Players in form
- P. Groß has 3 goals and 4 assists in 6 league games this season.
- M. De Cuyper has scored 2 goals in 6 league games this season.
- C. Kostoulas has scored 2 goals in 6 league games this season.
- D. Kamada has 1 goal and 3 assists in 6 league games this season.
- T. Mitchell has scored 2 goals in 6 league games this season.
- D. Henderson has made 12 saves in 3 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Brighton
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | W | 2-0 | Sunderland (A) | 1.1 - 0.7 |
| 19 Sep | W | 3-0 | Arsenal (H) | 1.3 - 1.6 |
| 13 Sep | W | 5-0 | Coventry (A) | 2.8 - 1.3 |
| 05 Sep | D | 1-1 | Leeds (H) | 2.2 - 2.5 |
| 30 Aug | L | 3-4 | Chelsea (A) | 1.5 - 3.0 |
| 23 Aug | W | 4-0 | Aston Villa (H) | 3.6 - 0.3 |
Recent form — Crystal Palace
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | W | 3-1 | Nottingham Forest (H) | 2.4 - 3.0 |
| 20 Sep | D | 0-0 | Leeds (A) | 1.1 - 1.3 |
| 17 Sep | W | 4-0 | Lech Poznan (H) | — |
| 12 Sep | L | 2-3 | Ipswich (H) | 0.6 - 1.7 |
| 05 Sep | W | 3-2 | Fulham (A) | 2.0 - 3.1 |
| 28 Aug | L | 1-4 | Manchester City (H) | 0.6 - 1.4 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Brighton
+0.52
xG diff/game · 2.09 for, 1.57 against
Crystal Palace
-0.55
xG diff/game · 1.38 for, 1.93 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | Premier League | 2026/27 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 2.167 | 18–5 | WWWDL |
| Crystal Palace | Premier League | 2026/27 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 6–11 | DLWLL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | home | Premier League | 2026/27 | 1-1-0 | 2.5 / 0.5 | 1 |
| Crystal Palace | away | Premier League | 2026/27 | 1-0-1 | 1.5 / 2.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Brighton 2 wins, 5 draws, Crystal Palace 3 wins — 2.2 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Feb 26 | Brighton | 0-1 | Crystal Palace |
| 09 Nov 25 | Crystal Palace | 0-0 | Brighton |