Fixture · La Liga · Sun 18 Oct 2026, 15:15 BST
Celta Vigo
v Alaves
The model's read
Celta Vigo
40%
match result
Draw
30%
match result
Alaves
30%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Celta Vigo or draw | 70.4% |
| Double chance Alaves or draw | 59.6% |
| Double chance either team | 70.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.3% |
| Both teams to score | 49.9% |
| Celta Vigo over 1.5 team goals | 37.9% |
| Alaves over 1.5 team goals | 29.8% |
| Celta Vigo clean sheet | 33.5% |
| Alaves clean sheet | 26.8% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 14.2% · 1-0 10.5% · 0-0 10.3% · 0-1 8.5% · 2-1 8.5%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — Celta Vigo: another match 3d before (2026-10-15).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Celta Vigo
- Celta Vigo are unbeaten in their last 5 league games (W1 D4).
Alaves
- Alaves are winless in their last 4 league games (D1 L3).
Players in form
- I. Radu has made 23 saves in 8 league games this season.
- Pablo Durán has scored 2 goals in 8 league games this season.
- Miguel Román has 1 goal and 2 assists in 7 league games this season.
- Sivera has made 28 saves in 8 league games this season.
- L. Boyé has scored 5 goals in 7 league games this season.
- M. Díaz has 3 goals and 3 assists in 8 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Celta Vigo
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | D | 0-0 | Elche (A) | 0.3 - 0.8 |
| 19 Sep | W | 5-0 | Racing Santander (H) | 2.1 - 0.8 |
| 16 Sep | L | 0-1 | Omonia Nicosia (A) | 1.1 - 0.3 |
| 13 Sep | D | 1-1 | Malaga (H) | 1.9 - 0.4 |
| 07 Sep | D | 1-1 | Getafe (A) | 1.0 - 0.7 |
| 03 Sep | D | 0-0 | Real Sociedad (A) | 0.4 - 1.1 |
Recent form — Alaves
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | L | 1-2 | Atletico Madrid (H) | 1.1 - 2.1 |
| 19 Sep | D | 0-0 | Athletic Club (A) | 0.1 - 1.6 |
| 15 Sep | L | 0-1 | Valencia (H) | 1.1 - 0.7 |
| 12 Sep | L | 1-2 | Racing Santander (A) | 2.0 - 2.0 |
| 06 Sep | W | 5-2 | Osasuna (H) | 1.2 - 1.6 |
| 28 Aug | W | 1-0 | Villarreal (H) | 0.8 - 1.3 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Celta Vigo
-0.30
xG diff/game · 0.90 for, 1.20 against
Alaves
-0.01
xG diff/game · 1.23 for, 1.25 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | La Liga | 2026/27 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 1.0 | 8–6 | WDDDL |
| Alaves | La Liga | 2026/27 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 1.375 | 12–8 | LDLLW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | home | La Liga | 2026/27 | 0-0-2 | 0.5 / 2.0 | 0 |
| Alaves | away | La Liga | 2026/27 | 0-1-1 | 1.0 / 1.5 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Celta Vigo 6 wins, 2 draws, Alaves 2 wins — 3.1 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Mar 26 | Celta Vigo | 3-4 | Alaves |
| 22 Nov 25 | Alaves | 0-1 | Celta Vigo |