Fixture · Serie B · Sun 18 Oct 2026, 16:15 BST
Cesena
v Avellino
The model's read
Cesena
40%
match result
Draw
31%
match result
Avellino
29%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Cesena or draw | 70.8% |
| Double chance Avellino or draw | 59.9% |
| Double chance either team | 69.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.1% |
| Both teams to score | 47.7% |
| Cesena over 1.5 team goals | 36.0% |
| Avellino over 1.5 team goals | 27.9% |
| Cesena clean sheet | 35.3% |
| Avellino clean sheet | 28.3% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 14.4% · 0-0 11.3% · 1-0 11.3% · 0-1 9.1% · 2-1 8.3%
Young rating. This league joined the model this season, so the numbers
above are built on a first season of data only — a small sample with no prior
seasons behind it. Read them with more caution than the established six leagues. No
picks are generated from young leagues; how well these reads age is scored in public,
separately, on the calibration page.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Cesena
- Cesena are winless in their last 4 league games (D3 L1).
- Cesena have not won any of their last 6 home league games (D5 L1).
- Both teams scored in 5 of Cesena's last 6 home league games.
- Cesena have conceded in each of their last 7 league games.
Avellino
- Both teams scored in only 1 of Avellino's last 6 away league games.
Recent form — Cesena
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | L | 0-2 | Benevento (A) | 0.5 - 1.6 |
| 18 Sep | D | 1-1 | Juve Stabia (A) | — |
| 12 Sep | D | 2-2 | Cremonese (H) | 1.1 - 1.2 |
| 06 Sep | D | 1-1 | Mantova (H) | 1.3 - 0.4 |
| 29 Aug | W | 2-1 | Virtus Entella (A) | 0.5 - 0.7 |
| 23 Aug | D | 1-1 | Sampdoria (H) | 1.0 - 1.1 |
Recent form — Avellino
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | W | 4-1 | Sampdoria (H) | 2.3 - 0.7 |
| 19 Sep | L | 1-3 | Ascoli (A) | 0.8 - 1.1 |
| 13 Sep | D | 1-1 | Palermo (H) | 1.9 - 0.6 |
| 06 Sep | W | 1-0 | Modena (A) | 0.4 - 2.0 |
| 29 Aug | W | 3-0 | Vicenza Virtus (H) | 1.4 - 1.1 |
| 22 Aug | L | 1-2 | Arezzo (H) | 0.7 - 1.3 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Cesena
-0.11
xG diff/game · 0.89 for, 0.99 against
Avellino
+0.14
xG diff/game · 1.25 for, 1.12 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cesena | Serie B | 2026/27 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 1.167 | 7–8 | LDDDW |
| Avellino | Serie B | 2026/27 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 1.667 | 11–7 | WLDWW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cesena | home | Serie B | 2026/27 | 0-3-0 | 1.3 / 1.3 | 0 |
| Avellino | away | Serie B | 2026/27 | 1-0-0 | 1.0 / 0.0 | 1 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 6 meetings: Cesena 3 wins, 2 draws, Avellino 1 wins — 3.0 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 26 | Avellino | 3-1 | Cesena |
| 09 Nov 25 | Cesena | 3-0 | Avellino |