Fixture · Premier League · Sun 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 BST
Leeds
v Manchester United
The model's read
Leeds
42%
match result
Draw
26%
match result
Manchester United
32%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Leeds or draw | 67.9% |
| Double chance Manchester United or draw | 58.4% |
| Double chance either team | 73.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.6% |
| Both teams to score | 61.4% |
| Leeds over 1.5 team goals | 48.0% |
| Manchester United over 1.5 team goals | 40.7% |
| Leeds clean sheet | 24.7% |
| Manchester United clean sheet | 19.9% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.2% · 2-1 9.0% · 1-2 7.8% · 1-0 6.8% · 2-0 6.4%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — Manchester United: another match 3d after (2026-10-21).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Leeds
- Leeds have averaged 2.0 goals a game across their last 6 home league games.
Manchester United
- Manchester United are winless in their last 4 league games (D3 L1).
- Manchester United have conceded in each of their last 6 league games.
Players in form
- J. Trafford has made 24 saves in 6 league games this season.
- J. Bogle has scored 2 goals in 6 league games this season.
- D. Calvert-Lewin has scored 2 goals in 6 league games this season.
- S. Lammens has made 18 saves in 6 league games this season.
- B. Mbeumo has scored 3 goals in 6 league games this season.
- Bruno Fernandes has scored 3 goals in 6 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Leeds
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | L | 1-2 | Arsenal (A) | 0.7 - 2.7 |
| 20 Sep | D | 0-0 | Crystal Palace (H) | 1.3 - 1.1 |
| 14 Sep | W | 4-1 | Newcastle (H) | 2.1 - 0.9 |
| 05 Sep | D | 1-1 | Brighton (A) | 2.5 - 2.2 |
| 30 Aug | D | 1-1 | Brentford (H) | 1.4 - 1.6 |
| 22 Aug | W | 1-0 | Nottingham Forest (A) | 0.3 - 0.3 |
Recent form — Manchester United
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | D | 1-1 | Tottenham (H) | 0.8 - 1.6 |
| 20 Sep | D | 1-1 | Fulham (A) | 1.6 - 1.6 |
| 13 Sep | L | 0-1 | Manchester City (H) | 1.0 - 1.1 |
| 10 Sep | W | 4-0 | Sabah FA (H) | — |
| 06 Sep | D | 2-2 | Everton (A) | 0.7 - 1.0 |
| 30 Aug | W | 5-2 | Ipswich (H) | 4.6 - 2.0 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Leeds
-0.06
xG diff/game · 1.39 for, 1.45 against
Manchester United
+0.27
xG diff/game · 1.71 for, 1.44 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds | Premier League | 2026/27 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 8–5 | LDWDD |
| Manchester United | Premier League | 2026/27 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 9–9 | DDLDW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds | home | Premier League | 2026/27 | 0-1-0 | 1.0 / 1.0 | 0 |
| Manchester United | away | Premier League | 2026/27 | 0-1-1 | 1.0 / 2.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Leeds 1 wins, 4 draws, Manchester United 5 wins — 3.3 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Apr 26 | Manchester United | 1-2 | Leeds |
| 04 Jan 26 | Leeds | 1-1 | Manchester United |