Fixture · La Liga · Sun 18 Oct 2026, 17:30 BST
Malaga
v Real Sociedad
The model's read
Malaga
43%
match result
Draw
27%
match result
Real Sociedad
30%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Malaga or draw | 70.1% |
| Double chance Real Sociedad or draw | 57.2% |
| Double chance either team | 72.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.9% |
| Both teams to score | 57.5% |
| Malaga over 1.5 team goals | 45.7% |
| Real Sociedad over 1.5 team goals | 35.9% |
| Malaga clean sheet | 28.4% |
| Real Sociedad clean sheet | 21.3% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 13.0% · 2-1 9.1% · 1-0 8.2% · 1-2 7.4% · 0-0 7.2%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — Real Sociedad: another match 3d before (2026-10-15).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Malaga
- Malaga are winless in their last 8 league games (D4 L4).
Real Sociedad
- Both teams scored in 5 of Real Sociedad's last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- Alfonso Herrero has made 30 saves in 8 league games this season.
- Adrián Niño Heredia has scored 2 goals in 4 league games this season.
- Álex Remiro has made 29 saves in 8 league games this season.
- L. Sučić has scored 3 goals in 8 league games this season.
- Carlos Soler has 1 goal and 3 assists in 8 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Malaga
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Oct | D | 1-1 | Espanyol (H) | 0.7 - 1.1 |
| 20 Sep | L | 0-1 | Getafe (A) | 0.5 - 0.9 |
| 17 Sep | L | 1-3 | Villarreal (H) | 0.6 - 3.3 |
| 13 Sep | D | 1-1 | Celta Vigo (A) | 0.4 - 1.9 |
| 06 Sep | D | 0-0 | Levante (H) | 1.5 - 0.8 |
| 30 Aug | L | 0-4 | Real Madrid (A) | 0.7 - 2.3 |
Recent form — Real Sociedad
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | W | 3-2 | Deportivo La Coruna (H) | 1.5 - 2.0 |
| 20 Sep | W | 3-2 | Valencia (A) | 2.6 - 1.6 |
| 17 Sep | L | 1-2 | Bournemouth (H) | — |
| 13 Sep | L | 0-3 | Atletico Madrid (H) | 0.3 - 2.0 |
| 07 Sep | W | 3-2 | Elche (A) | 0.6 - 2.5 |
| 03 Sep | D | 0-0 | Celta Vigo (H) | 1.1 - 0.4 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Malaga
-0.72
xG diff/game · 0.81 for, 1.54 against
Real Sociedad
-0.43
xG diff/game · 1.23 for, 1.67 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga | La Liga | 2026/27 | 20 | 8 | 4 | 0.5 | 4–13 | DLLDD |
| Real Sociedad | La Liga | 2026/27 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 1.429 | 9–13 | WLWDW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga | home | La Liga | 2026/27 | 0-2-0 | 0.5 / 0.5 | 1 |
| Real Sociedad | away | La Liga | 2026/27 | 1-0-2 | 1.3 / 2.3 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Malaga 4 wins, 3 draws, Real Sociedad 3 wins — 2.1 goals a game on average.
Match-by-match detail predates the fixtures this site tracks; the summary above comes from the head-to-head archive.