Fixture · Premier League · Sun 18 Oct 2026, 16:30 BST
Nottingham Forest
v Arsenal
The model's read
Nottingham Forest
31%
match result
Draw
28%
match result
Arsenal
40%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Nottingham Forest or draw | 59.6% |
| Double chance Arsenal or draw | 68.6% |
| Double chance either team | 71.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.0% |
| Both teams to score | 55.4% |
| Nottingham Forest over 1.5 team goals | 35.2% |
| Arsenal over 1.5 team goals | 42.0% |
| Nottingham Forest clean sheet | 23.8% |
| Arsenal clean sheet | 28.9% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 13.5% · 1-2 8.8% · 0-1 8.7% · 0-0 8.1% · 2-1 7.6%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — Arsenal: another match 3d after (2026-10-21).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Nottingham Forest
- Only 1 of Nottingham Forest's last 6 home league games produced over 2.5 goals.
Players in form
- D. Ndoye has scored 2 goals in 6 league games this season.
- M. Sels has made 15 saves in 6 league games this season.
- M. Gibbs-White has 1 goal and 2 assists in 6 league games this season.
- B. Saka has scored 3 goals in 6 league games this season.
- M. Ødegaard has scored 2 goals in 6 league games this season.
- K. Havertz has scored 2 goals in 6 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Nottingham Forest
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | L | 1-3 | Crystal Palace (A) | 3.0 - 2.4 |
| 19 Sep | L | 0-1 | Coventry (H) | 1.1 - 0.7 |
| 12 Sep | W | 2-1 | Aston Villa (A) | 2.3 - 0.8 |
| 05 Sep | D | 0-0 | Tottenham (H) | 0.9 - 1.1 |
| 29 Aug | D | 2-2 | Liverpool (A) | 2.3 - 1.8 |
| 22 Aug | L | 0-1 | Leeds (H) | 0.3 - 0.3 |
Recent form — Arsenal
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | W | 2-1 | Leeds (H) | 2.7 - 0.7 |
| 19 Sep | L | 0-3 | Brighton (A) | 1.6 - 1.3 |
| 12 Sep | W | 2-0 | Sunderland (A) | 1.9 - 1.8 |
| 09 Sep | W | 1-0 | Napoli (A) | — |
| 06 Sep | W | 2-1 | Chelsea (H) | 2.0 - 0.4 |
| 31 Aug | W | 1-0 | Aston Villa (A) | 1.1 - 0.3 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Nottingham Forest
+0.49
xG diff/game · 1.65 for, 1.17 against
Arsenal
+1.05
xG diff/game · 1.84 for, 0.79 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | Premier League | 2026/27 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 4–5 | LWDDL |
| Arsenal | Premier League | 2026/27 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 10–5 | WLWWW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | home | Premier League | 2026/27 | 0-1-1 | 0.0 / 0.5 | 1 |
| Arsenal | away | Premier League | 2026/27 | 2-0-0 | 1.5 / 0.0 | 2 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Nottingham Forest 2 wins, 2 draws, Arsenal 6 wins — 2.4 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jan 26 | Nottingham Forest | 0-0 | Arsenal |
| 13 Sep 25 | Arsenal | 3-0 | Nottingham Forest |