Fixture · La Liga · Sun 18 Oct 2026, 20:00 BST
Real Madrid
v Sevilla
The model's read
Real Madrid
59%
match result
Draw
26%
match result
Sevilla
15%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Real Madrid or draw | 85.2% |
| Double chance Sevilla or draw | 41.2% |
| Double chance either team | 73.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.2% |
| Both teams to score | 42.1% |
| Real Madrid over 1.5 team goals | 49.0% |
| Sevilla over 1.5 team goals | 15.9% |
| Real Madrid clean sheet | 49.2% |
| Sevilla clean sheet | 19.3% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-0 14.5% · 2-0 12.8% · 1-1 12.2% · 0-0 10.6% · 2-1 9.1%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — Real Madrid: another match 3d after (2026-10-21).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Real Madrid
- Real Madrid have won 6 of their last 6 home league games.
- Real Madrid have averaged 3.2 goals a game across their last 6 home league games.
Players in form
- Kylian Mbappé has scored 7 goals in 8 league games this season.
- T. Courtois has made 24 saves in 8 league games this season.
- J. Bellingham has scored 3 goals in 8 league games this season.
- O. Vlachodimos has made 20 saves in 7 league games this season.
- M. Sierra has scored 2 goals in 6 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Real Madrid
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | W | 1-0 | Villarreal (H) | 1.0 - 0.6 |
| 20 Sep | L | 1-2 | Atletico Madrid (A) | 0.3 - 2.4 |
| 15 Sep | W | 3-2 | Elche (A) | 3.6 - 0.8 |
| 12 Sep | W | 4-1 | Rayo Vallecano (H) | 2.6 - 1.2 |
| 08 Sep | W | 2-1 | Inter (H) | 2.9 - 1.8 |
| 04 Sep | L | 0-1 | Real Betis (A) | 3.5 - 0.9 |
Recent form — Sevilla
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | L | 1-3 | Barcelona (H) | 0.4 - 3.5 |
| 16 Sep | W | 1-0 | Deportivo La Coruna (A) | 0.7 - 0.1 |
| 11 Sep | W | 1-0 | Valencia (H) | 0.9 - 0.1 |
| 06 Sep | D | 1-1 | Espanyol (A) | 0.5 - 1.2 |
| 29 Aug | L | 1-3 | Atletico Madrid (H) | 1.0 - 0.9 |
| 22 Aug | W | 3-1 | Athletic Club (A) | 0.0 - 0.0 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Real Madrid
+1.14
xG diff/game · 2.09 for, 0.95 against
Sevilla
-0.29
xG diff/game · 0.84 for, 1.13 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | La Liga | 2026/27 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 2.25 | 19–8 | WLWWL |
| Sevilla | La Liga | 2026/27 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 1.857 | 10–9 | LWWDL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | home | La Liga | 2026/27 | 3-0-0 | 4.0 / 0.7 | 1 |
| Sevilla | away | La Liga | 2026/27 | 1-1-0 | 2.0 / 1.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Real Madrid 9 wins, 1 draws, Sevilla 0 wins — 2.9 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 May 26 | Sevilla | 0-1 | Real Madrid |
| 20 Dec 25 | Real Madrid | 2-0 | Sevilla |