Fixture · Serie A · Sun 18 Oct 2026, 11:30 BST
Udinese
v Lecce
The model's read
Udinese
50%
match result
Draw
27%
match result
Lecce
23%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Udinese or draw | 77.2% |
| Double chance Lecce or draw | 49.9% |
| Double chance either team | 72.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.6% |
| Both teams to score | 52.8% |
| Udinese over 1.5 team goals | 48.3% |
| Lecce over 1.5 team goals | 27.5% |
| Udinese clean sheet | 35.7% |
| Lecce clean sheet | 19.7% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.9% · 1-0 10.3% · 2-1 9.6% · 2-0 9.3% · 0-0 8.2%
Model readiness. Udinese has played 5 league games this season, Lecce 6 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Udinese
- Udinese have lost their last 3 league games.
- Only 1 of Udinese's last 6 home league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Udinese have conceded in each of their last 7 league games.
Players in form
- Maduka Okoye has made 20 saves in 5 league games this season.
- Hassane Kamara has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
- Jürgen Ekkelenkamp has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
- W. Falcone has made 30 saves in 6 league games this season.
- L. Coulibaly has scored 2 goals in 6 league games this season.
- Tiago Gabriel has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Udinese
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | L | 0-1 | Cagliari (H) | 1.9 - 1.1 |
| 14 Sep | L | 3-5 | Inter (A) | 0.8 - 3.1 |
| 07 Sep | L | 1-2 | Lazio (H) | 0.8 - 1.8 |
| 29 Aug | W | 3-2 | Monza (A) | 1.0 - 1.7 |
| 22 Aug | D | 1-1 | Como (H) | 2.0 - 1.5 |
| 24 May | L | 0-1 | Napoli (A) | 0.4 - 1.8 |
Recent form — Lecce
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | L | 1-2 | Bologna (H) | 1.3 - 1.6 |
| 20 Sep | L | 0-3 | AC Milan (A) | 0.2 - 1.9 |
| 13 Sep | W | 3-2 | Monza (H) | 1.1 - 2.7 |
| 07 Sep | L | 0-1 | Cagliari (A) | 0.5 - 1.6 |
| 31 Aug | L | 0-4 | AS Roma (H) | 0.7 - 3.2 |
| 23 Aug | W | 2-0 | Venezia (A) | 0.2 - 1.6 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Udinese
-0.54
xG diff/game · 1.30 for, 1.85 against
Lecce
-1.45
xG diff/game · 0.66 for, 2.12 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese | Serie A | 2026/27 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 8–11 | LLLWD |
| Lecce | Serie A | 2026/27 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 5–10 | LWLLW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese | home | Serie A | 2026/27 | 0-1-1 | 1.0 / 1.5 | 0 |
| Lecce | away | Serie A | 2026/27 | 1-0-1 | 1.0 / 0.5 | 1 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Udinese 5 wins, 2 draws, Lecce 3 wins — 2.2 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Feb 26 | Lecce | 2-1 | Udinese |
| 25 Oct 25 | Udinese | 3-2 | Lecce |