Fixture · Serie A · Mon 19 Oct 2026, 17:30 BST
Monza
v Cagliari
The model's read
Monza
47%
match result
Draw
27%
match result
Cagliari
26%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Monza or draw | 74.4% |
| Double chance Cagliari or draw | 53.0% |
| Double chance either team | 72.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.4% |
| Both teams to score | 54.5% |
| Monza over 1.5 team goals | 46.8% |
| Cagliari over 1.5 team goals | 30.5% |
| Monza clean sheet | 32.9% |
| Cagliari clean sheet | 20.6% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 13.1% · 1-0 9.5% · 2-1 9.4% · 2-0 8.5% · 0-0 8.0%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Monza
- Both teams have scored in each of Monza's last 6 league games.
- Monza have conceded in each of their last 6 league games.
Cagliari
- Cagliari are unbeaten in their last 4 league games (W3 D1).
Players in form
- Gustavo Varela has scored 4 goals in 5 league games this season.
- Ricardo Mangas has 1 goal and 2 assists in 6 league games this season.
- N. Törnqvist has made 11 saves in 4 league games this season.
- E. Caprile has made 28 saves in 6 league games this season.
- D. Maldini has scored 4 goals in 6 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Monza
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | L | 1-3 | Lazio (A) | 1.9 - 1.6 |
| 18 Sep | W | 2-1 | Sassuolo (H) | 1.4 - 1.6 |
| 13 Sep | L | 2-3 | Lecce (A) | 2.7 - 1.1 |
| 06 Sep | D | 1-1 | Parma (A) | 1.7 - 0.7 |
| 29 Aug | L | 2-3 | Udinese (H) | 1.7 - 1.0 |
| 22 Aug | L | 1-4 | Inter (A) | 1.1 - 1.2 |
Recent form — Cagliari
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | D | 1-1 | Juventus (H) | 0.5 - 1.9 |
| 19 Sep | W | 1-0 | Udinese (A) | 1.1 - 1.9 |
| 12 Sep | W | 2-1 | Atalanta (A) | 1.1 - 1.2 |
| 07 Sep | W | 1-0 | Lecce (H) | 1.6 - 0.5 |
| 30 Aug | L | 0-1 | Inter (H) | 0.5 - 3.8 |
| 22 Aug | W | 1-0 | Parma (A) | 0.7 - 0.8 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Monza
+0.58
xG diff/game · 1.77 for, 1.19 against
Cagliari
-0.76
xG diff/game · 0.93 for, 1.69 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monza | Serie A | 2026/27 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 0.667 | 9–15 | LWLDL |
| Cagliari | Serie A | 2026/27 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 2.167 | 6–3 | DWWWL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monza | home | Serie A | 2026/27 | 0-0-1 | 2.0 / 3.0 | 0 |
| Cagliari | away | Serie A | 2026/27 | 2-0-0 | 1.5 / 0.5 | 1 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 4 meetings: Monza 1 wins, 1 draws, Cagliari 2 wins — 2.25 goals a game on average.
Match-by-match detail predates the fixtures this site tracks; the summary above comes from the head-to-head archive.