Levante 3–1 Athletic Club
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 3–1; by chance quality the match ran 2.05–1.95.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Levante to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 37% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 2–1.9, shots 12–21 with 7–4 on target. Athletic Club got into the box far more often (13 shots inside it to 9) and Athletic Club held 62% of the ball. Levante's finishing ran hot — 3 from 2 xG, 7 of 12 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 3–1 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Levante 4-3-3
- 3 IfeanyiIfeanyi Ndukwe (D)
- 4 Dela (D)
- 8 Jon Ander Olasagasti (M)
- 9 Iván Romero (F)
- 13 M. Ryan (G)
- 18 E. Bardeli (M)
- 20 Oriol Rey (M)
- 23 Manu Sánchez (D)
- 24 T. Fernández (F)
- 27 Paco Cortés (F)
- 29 Nacho Pérez (D)
Bench: Reque, M. Santos, A. Tape, P. Ratkov, J. Toljan, Brugui, Yanis Musuayi, Jorge Cabello, Pablo Cuñat, Víctor García, I. Galdin, A. Mandi
Athletic Club 4-2-3-1
- 1 Unai Simón (G)
- 4 Aitor Paredes (D)
- 7 Álex Berenguer (M)
- 8 Oihan Sancet (M)
- 14 Aymeric Laporte (D)
- 16 Ruíz de Galarreta (M)
- 17 Yuri (D)
- 18 Mikel Jauregizar (M)
- 21 Maroan Sannadi (F)
- 23 Robert Navarro (M)
- 31 J. Louis-Jean (D)
Bench: Jesús Areso, Beñat Gerenabarrena, Gorka Guruzeta, Álex Padilla, Beñat Prados, Alejandro Rego, Hugo Rincón, Nico Serrano, I. Williams, Nico Williams, Yeray, Álvaro Djaló
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Levante or draw | 1.72 | 55.0% | -2.2 pts |
| Double chance Athletic Club or draw | 1.29 | 73.3% | +3.1 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.32 | 71.7% | -0.9 pts |
| Draw no bet — Levante | 2.53 | 37.1% | -4.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Athletic Club | 1.49 | 62.9% | +4.0 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.31 | 71.8% | -1.4 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.99 | 48.1% | -1.9 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.32 | 28.2% | -1.6 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | 53.4% | -1.2 pts |
| Levante over 1.5 team goals | 3.00 | 31.2% | -2.8 pts |
| Athletic Club over 1.5 team goals | 2.10 | 44.7% | +0.6 pts |
| Levante clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | +0.0 pts |
| Athletic Club clean sheet | 2.75 | 33.7% | +2.5 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.03 · 0-1 7.33 · 1-2 8.45 · 0-0 9.28 · 1-0 9.97
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-21 17:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Feb 26 | Athletic Club | 4-2 | Levante |
| 29 Nov 25 | Levante | 0-2 | Athletic Club |