Alaves 1–1 Malaga
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.88–0.62.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Alaves to win (65%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 23% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Alaves created the better chances — the xG read 1.9–0.6 and the shot count agreed (18–7, 4–3 on target). Alaves got into the box far more often (12 shots inside it to 5) and Alaves held 63% of the ball. Alaves's finishing let them down — 1 from 1.9 xG despite 4 of 18 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). A draw on the scoreboard, but on chances created Alaves shaded the game.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Alaves 5-3-2
- 1 Sivera (G)
- 2 N. Valentini (D)
- 7 Angel Pérez (D)
- 8 Antonio Blanco (M)
- 9 M. Díaz (F)
- 10 Carles Aleñá (M)
- 14 N. Tenaglia (D)
- 15 L. Boyé (F)
- 16 V. Koski (D)
- 19 Pablo Ibáñez (M)
- 21 A. Rebbach (D)
Bench: C. Benavídez, Denis Suárez, Miguel Rodríguez, A. Giménez, X. Olaiz, Hugo Novoa, Rubén Montero, Aitor Mañas, Toni Martínez, Yusi, Selu Diallo, Jonny
Malaga 4-1-4-1
- 1 Alfonso Herrero (G)
- 3 Puga (D)
- 4 Einar Galilea (D)
- 6 Ramón Enríquez (M)
- 8 Carlos Dotor (M)
- 10 David Larrubia (M)
- 15 Ángel Recio (D)
- 21 Adrián Niño Heredia (F)
- 22 Dani Lorenzo (M)
- 31 Rafita (D)
- 39 Adam Aznou Ben Cheikh (M)
Bench: J. Cajuste, Izan Merino, Fernando Calero, Chupe, Eneko Jauregi, Carlos López, Álex Pastor, Rafa Rodríguez, José Salinas, H. Abaida, J. Fernandez, Juan Berrocal
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Alaves or draw | 1.15 | 82.4% | +2.7 pts |
| Double chance Malaga or draw | 2.22 | 42.6% | -3.5 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.26 | 74.9% | +0.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Alaves | 1.22 | 76.1% | +3.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Malaga | 3.89 | 23.9% | -3.8 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.33 | 70.9% | +0.4 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.03 | 47.1% | +0.8 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.44 | 27.4% | +0.6 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.95 | 47.8% | -1.3 pts |
| Alaves over 1.5 team goals | 1.83 | 51.2% | +2.1 pts |
| Malaga over 1.5 team goals | 4.43 | 21.2% | -2.3 pts |
| Alaves clean sheet | 2.00 | 46.4% | +4.0 pts |
| Malaga clean sheet | 5.00 | 19.0% | -1.8 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-0 6.03 · 1-1 6.76 · 2-0 7.08 · 2-1 8.04 · 0-0 9.17
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-23 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).