Granada CF 2–1 Valladolid
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–1; by chance quality the match ran 0.87–1.36.
The brain read
Valladolid created the better chances — the xG read 0.9–1.4 and the shot count agreed (10–14, 7–8 on target). Granada CF's finishing ran hot — 2 from 0.9 xG, 7 of 10 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). The 2–1 flatters Granada CF — on chances created, Valladolid shaded it.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Granada CF 4-3-3
- 1 Alberto Flores (G)
- 4 Rubén Alcaraz (M)
- 5 Manu Lama (D)
- 6 Gumbau (M)
- 7 Sergio Rodelas (F)
- 10 Jorge Pascual (F)
- 11 José Arnáiz (F)
- 18 Sergio López (D)
- 22 B. Diallo (D)
- 27 M. Gambin (M)
- 30 Juan José Flores Castro (D)
Bench: Pau Casadesús, K. Bamba, B. Dembele, A. Garcia, B. Gimber, Diego Hormigo, Raúl Lizoain, Manuel Maza Barranco, O. M. Chukwuemeka, Chinaza Onouha, D. Rodriguez, Diego Pampín
Valladolid 4-1-3-2
- 1 Álvaro Aceves (G)
- 4 David Torres (D)
- 8 T. Ojeda (M)
- 14 Iván Alejo (D)
- 15 Pablo Tomeo (D)
- 17 Victor Barberá (F)
- 19 Adrian Arnuncio (F)
- 21 J. Ponceau (M)
- 23 T. Abed (M)
- 24 S. Jurić (M)
- 27 Iván Garriel (D)
Bench: Álex Balboa, Yeray Cabanzón, Clerc, Tomás Fernández Sabatini, M. Lachuer, L. Lavagnino, Dani Martín, Ramón Martínez, Trilli, K. de Rooij, R. Duiven, Homam Ahmed
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Granada CF or draw | 1.31 | 71.7% | +0.0 pts |
| Double chance Valladolid or draw | 1.64 | 57.4% | +0.0 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.32 | 70.9% | -0.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Granada CF | 1.55 | 59.7% | +0.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Valladolid | 2.30 | 40.3% | -0.2 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.32 | 71.2% | +0.6 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.01 | 47.1% | +0.7 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.50 | 26.8% | +0.2 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.76 | 52.7% | +0.5 pts |
| Granada CF over 1.5 team goals | 2.21 | 42.2% | +0.2 pts |
| Valladolid over 1.5 team goals | 2.87 | 32.4% | +1.1 pts |
| Granada CF clean sheet | 2.62 | 35.5% | +0.0 pts |
| Valladolid clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.8% | +1.8 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.77 · 1-0 7.04 · 2-1 8.40 · 0-0 8.56 · 0-1 8.99
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-23 18:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb 26 | Granada CF | 5-1 | Valladolid |
| 03 Nov 25 | Valladolid | 2-1 | Granada CF |