VfB Stuttgart 2–3 Borussia Mönchengladbach
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–3; by chance quality the match ran 1.62–2.66.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured VfB Stuttgart to win (65%); it finished with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 16% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Borussia Mönchengladbach created the better chances — the xG read 1.6–2.7, with the shot count roughly even (15–16, 5–6 on target). VfB Stuttgart held 70% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the 2–3 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
VfB Stuttgart 3-4-2-1
- 3 R. Hendriks (D)
- 6 A. Stiller (M)
- 7 M. Mittelstädt (D)
- 9 E. Demirović (F)
- 10 C. Führich (M)
- 16 A. Karazor (M)
- 17 D. Pejčinović (M)
- 22 L. Assignon (M)
- 29 Finn Jeltsch (D)
- 41 D. Seimen (G)
- 44 L. Sauer (M)
Bench: A. Al Dakhil, F. Bredlow, J. Chabot, J. Leweling, G. Prömel, Y. Spalt, L. Stergiou, D. Undav, B. El Khannouss
Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-4-2-1
- 1 M. Nicolas (G)
- 2 F. Chiarodia (D)
- 10 F. Neuhaus (M)
- 14 D. Hashioka (D)
- 16 P. Sander (D)
- 18 S. Machino (F)
- 26 L. Ullrich (M)
- 29 J. Scally (M)
- 36 W. Mohya (M)
- 38 H. Bolin (M)
- 47 Z. Uno (M)
Bench: K. Stöger, Lion Schweers, M. Nguefack, Y. Konoplya, D. Herold, R. Hack, I. M. Danfa, D. Batz, J. Uwakhonye
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance VfB Stuttgart or draw | 1.10 | 86.4% | +0.9 pts |
| Double chance Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw | 3.17 | 30.0% | -1.4 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.13 | 83.7% | +0.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — VfB Stuttgart | 1.11 | 83.8% | +1.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5.77 | 16.2% | -1.7 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.06 | 88.6% | +0.5 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.26 | 74.9% | +0.8 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.70 | 55.9% | +0.8 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 | 64.7% | -0.2 pts |
| VfB Stuttgart over 1.5 team goals | 1.23 | 75.9% | +0.8 pts |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach over 1.5 team goals | 2.83 | 33.1% | -0.8 pts |
| VfB Stuttgart clean sheet | 3.00 | 31.2% | +0.0 pts |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach clean sheet | 13.00 | 7.4% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 2-1 9.07 · 3-1 9.65 · 2-0 10.62 · 3-0 11.47 · 1-1 12.19
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-23 18:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jan 26 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 0-3 | VfB Stuttgart |
| 30 Aug 25 | VfB Stuttgart | 1-0 | Borussia Mönchengladbach |