VfL Bochum 1–1 VfL Wolfsburg
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.59–0.78.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured VfL Wolfsburg to win (43%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 25% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
VfL Bochum created the better chances — the xG read 1.6–0.8 and the shot count agreed (19–14, 5–5 on target). VfL Bochum got into the box far more often (11 shots inside it to 5) and VfL Wolfsburg held 63% of the ball. A draw on the scoreboard, but on chances created VfL Bochum shaded the game.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance VfL Bochum or draw | 1.78 | 52.9% | -2.6 pts |
| Double chance VfL Wolfsburg or draw | 1.33 | 71.0% | +1.8 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.24 | 76.2% | +0.9 pts |
| Draw no bet — VfL Bochum | 2.46 | 37.8% | -3.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — VfL Wolfsburg | 1.50 | 62.2% | +3.6 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.10 | 85.0% | +1.5 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 66.6% | +2.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.02 | 46.6% | +2.4 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.38 | 67.5% | +1.4 pts |
| VfL Bochum over 1.5 team goals | 2.09 | 44.7% | -0.5 pts |
| VfL Wolfsburg over 1.5 team goals | 1.59 | 58.4% | +3.1 pts |
| VfL Bochum clean sheet | 6.50 | 14.6% | -6.2 pts |
| VfL Wolfsburg clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | +1.7 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 8.19 · 1-2 8.64 · 2-2 10.39 · 2-1 11.46 · 0-1 12.25
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-23 16:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).