Almeria 2–2 Oviedo
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–2; by chance quality the match ran 0.70–1.35.
The brain read
Oviedo created the better chances — the xG read 0.7–1.4 and the shot count agreed (7–20, 3–8 on target). Oviedo got into the box far more often (10 shots inside it to 6). Almeria's finishing ran hot — 2 from 0.7 xG, 3 of 7 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). A draw on the scoreboard, but on chances created Oviedo shaded the game.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Almeria 4-2-3-1
- 1 Andrés Fernández (G)
- 2 Marcos Luna (D)
- 3 Álex Muñoz (D)
- 5 Jorge Pulido (D)
- 11 Sergio Arribas (M)
- 14 Javi Muñoz (M)
- 17 B. Cipenga (M)
- 18 F. Bonini (D)
- 24 Miguel de la Fuente (F)
- 29 S. Džodić (M)
- 33 Quim Junyent (M)
Bench: Chumi, Léo Baptistão, Adri Embarba, Thalys, I. Koné, Fernando Martínez, Jon Morcillo, A. Popov, Álex Sola, Á. Yaakobishvili, Leonardo Lelo, Gui
Oviedo 4-4-2
- 4 David Costas (D)
- 5 Y. Didi (M)
- 8 Mikel Goti (M)
- 10 Alberto Reina (M)
- 12 Dani Calvo (D)
- 13 Aarón Escandell (G)
- 15 S. Rodriguez (D)
- 16 Aritz Aldasoro (M)
- 22 Nacho Vidal (D)
- 25 José Luis Morales (F)
- 32 Enzo Perez (F)
Bench: David Jiménez, Miguel Narváez, Aisar, Marco Esteban, Dani Villahermosa, B. Dominguès, A. Ișfan, Estanis, Pablo Sáenz, Jacobo González, V. Mingo, D. Menendez
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Almeria or draw | 1.17 | 80.2% | -1.2 pts |
| Double chance Oviedo or draw | 2.14 | 44.0% | +1.9 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.24 | 75.8% | -0.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Almeria | 1.27 | 73.6% | -2.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Oviedo | 3.54 | 26.4% | +2.3 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | 75.0% | +0.1 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.81 | 52.3% | +0.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.02 | 31.2% | -0.6 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.76 | 52.6% | +1.2 pts |
| Almeria over 1.5 team goals | 1.73 | 54.1% | -1.5 pts |
| Oviedo over 1.5 team goals | 3.48 | 26.9% | +2.0 pts |
| Almeria clean sheet | 2.38 | 39.1% | -2.0 pts |
| Oviedo clean sheet | 5.50 | 17.2% | +1.4 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-0 6.69 · 1-1 6.69 · 2-1 7.53 · 2-0 7.66 · 0-0 10.73
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-24 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).