Atletico Madrid 1–0 Deportivo La Coruna
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–0; by chance quality the match ran 1.44–2.02.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 70% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Deportivo La Coruna created the better chances — the xG read 1.4–2, with the shot count roughly even (20–15, 4–5 on target). Deportivo La Coruna got into the box far more often (10 shots inside it to 6). Deportivo La Coruna's finishing let them down — 0 from 2 xG despite 5 of 15 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). The 1–0 flatters Atletico Madrid — on chances created, Deportivo La Coruna shaded it.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Atletico Madrid or draw | 1.06 | 89.6% | -0.5 pts |
| Double chance Deportivo La Coruna or draw | 3.68 | 25.9% | +0.3 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.13 | 84.5% | +0.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Atletico Madrid | 1.07 | 88.1% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Deportivo La Coruna | 7.88 | 11.9% | +0.3 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.16 | 81.1% | -0.2 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.56 | 60.7% | -0.7 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.40 | 39.5% | -0.9 pts |
| Both teams to score | 2.01 | 46.3% | -0.2 pts |
| Atletico Madrid over 1.5 team goals | 1.34 | 69.9% | -0.1 pts |
| Deportivo La Coruna over 1.5 team goals | 5.38 | 17.3% | -0.2 pts |
| Atletico Madrid clean sheet | 1.83 | 50.0% | +0.0 pts |
| Deportivo La Coruna clean sheet | 10.00 | 9.6% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 2-0 6.36 · 1-0 7.49 · 3-0 7.71 · 2-1 8.69 · 1-1 10.43
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-24 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).