Blackburn 2–0 Wrexham
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–0; by chance quality the match ran 1.61–1.74.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Wrexham to win (42%); it finished with Blackburn to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 27% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.6–1.7, shots 16–23 with 5–1 on target. Wrexham got into the box far more often (16 shots inside it to 10). Wrexham's finishing let them down — 0 from 1.7 xG despite 1 of 23 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 2–0 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Blackburn 4-2-3-1
- 2 R. Alebiosu (D)
- 3 H. Pickering (D)
- 8 Sam Morsy (M)
- 9 A. Guðjohnsen (F)
- 10 T. Cantwell (M)
- 11 J. Fevrier (D)
- 15 S. McLoughlin (D)
- 17 H. Carter (D)
- 21 O. Afolayan (F)
- 22 B. Tóth (G)
- 24 M. Baradji (M)
Bench: A. Pears, S. Wharton, Tom Atcheson, Gady Beyuku, D. De Neve, I. Dunn, J. Garrett, A. Kargbo, H. Pates
Wrexham 3-4-2-1
- 2 C. Doyle (D)
- 3 J. Ekomié (D)
- 5 D. Hyam (D)
- 6 J. Worrall (D)
- 8 B. Whiteman (M)
- 12 I. Kaboré (D)
- 17 C. O'Hare (M)
- 19 K. Moore (F)
- 22 A. Patterson (G)
- 28 S. Smith (F)
- 37 M. James (M)
Bench: G. Dobson, Daniel Edward Peter Imray, R. Longman, L. O'Brien, O. Rathbone, B. Sheaf, Z. Vyner, D. Ward, B. Cadamarteri
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Blackburn or draw | 1.49 | 62.8% | -1.3 pts |
| Double chance Wrexham or draw | 1.41 | 66.6% | +1.2 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.33 | 70.6% | +0.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Blackburn | 1.95 | 47.6% | -1.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Wrexham | 1.77 | 52.4% | +1.8 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.34 | 69.6% | +0.7 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 44.9% | +0.6 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.69 | 25.3% | +0.6 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.81 | 51.4% | +0.4 pts |
| Blackburn over 1.5 team goals | 2.75 | 33.9% | -0.8 pts |
| Wrexham over 1.5 team goals | 2.51 | 37.2% | +1.7 pts |
| Blackburn clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | +0.0 pts |
| Wrexham clean sheet | 3.00 | 31.2% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.89 · 0-1 7.66 · 1-0 8.00 · 0-0 8.64 · 1-2 9.31
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-24 13:31 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Jan 26 | Blackburn | 0-2 | Wrexham |
| 29 Nov 25 | Wrexham | 1-1 | Blackburn |