Charlton 1–3 Norwich
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–3; by chance quality the match ran 0.87–1.75.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Norwich to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 38% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Norwich created the better chances — the xG read 0.9–1.8 and the shot count agreed (8–16, 3–5 on target). Norwich held 62% of the ball. Norwich's finishing ran hot — 3 from 1.8 xG, 5 of 16 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On the balance of chances, the 1–3 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Charlton 4-2-3-1
- 2 K. Ramsay (D)
- 3 J. Edwards (D)
- 5 L. Jones (D)
- 6 C. Coventry (M)
- 7 T. Campbell (M)
- 9 K. Ahearne-Grant (M)
- 12 Billy Dawson Koumetio (D)
- 13 A. Okonkwo (G)
- 14 S. Carey (M)
- 23 C. Kelman (F)
- 26 J. Rankin-Costello (M)
Bench: M. Alli, A. Bell, Tyler Bindon, H. Knibbs, M. Leaburn, W. Mannion, Micah Mbick, I. Mesík, A. Mwamba
Norwich 4-2-3-1
- 3 J. Stacey (D)
- 6 H. Darling (D)
- 7 P. Mattsson (M)
- 11 A. Brooks (M)
- 14 B. Chrisene (D)
- 15 Ruairi McConville (D)
- 16 Jacob Wright (M)
- 25 P. Maghoma (M)
- 29 O. Schwartau (M)
- 30 M. Kvistgaarden (F)
- 32 D. Grimshaw (G)
Bench: S. Field, K. Fisher, V. Kovačević, J. Makama, K. McLean, A. Musaba, D. Yongwa, A. Crnac, J. Córdoba
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Charlton or draw | 1.65 | 57.0% | +1.9 pts |
| Double chance Norwich or draw | 1.34 | 70.2% | -1.6 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.29 | 72.8% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Charlton | 2.30 | 40.4% | +1.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Norwich | 1.56 | 59.6% | -1.2 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.26 | 74.1% | +0.2 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.87 | 50.6% | -0.2 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.16 | 29.6% | -0.4 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.68 | 55.4% | +0.2 pts |
| Charlton over 1.5 team goals | 2.71 | 34.4% | +0.2 pts |
| Norwich over 1.5 team goals | 2.06 | 45.3% | -0.5 pts |
| Charlton clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | +0.0 pts |
| Norwich clean sheet | 3.00 | 31.2% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.27 · 0-1 7.91 · 1-2 8.35 · 1-0 9.85 · 2-1 10.64
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-24 11:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Mar 26 | Charlton | 0-1 | Norwich |
| 26 Dec 25 | Norwich | 1-0 | Charlton |