Chelsea 0–2 Tottenham
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–2; by chance quality the match ran 0.51–0.80.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Chelsea to win (43%); it finished with Tottenham to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 28% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 0.5–0.8, shots 7–15 with 4–4 on target. Tottenham held 68% of the ball. Tottenham's finishing ran hot — 2 from 0.8 xG, 4 of 15 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 0–2 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Chelsea or draw | 1.26 | 74.7% | -2.7 pts |
| Double chance Tottenham or draw | 1.87 | 50.4% | +5.1 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.26 | 74.9% | -2.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Chelsea | 1.40 | 66.4% | -4.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Tottenham | 2.76 | 33.6% | +4.0 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.16 | 81.0% | +0.2 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.56 | 60.6% | -0.5 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.39 | 39.9% | -0.1 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 | 62.4% | +1.7 pts |
| Chelsea over 1.5 team goals | 1.67 | 56.2% | -2.5 pts |
| Tottenham over 1.5 team goals | 2.50 | 37.7% | +3.1 pts |
| Chelsea clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | -2.2 pts |
| Tottenham clean sheet | 6.00 | 15.7% | +1.1 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.39 · 2-1 8.32 · 1-0 10.11 · 2-0 11.14 · 2-2 11.39
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-24 16:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 May 26 | Chelsea | 2-1 | Tottenham |
| 01 Nov 25 | Tottenham | 0-1 | Chelsea |