Falkirk 3–0 Kilmarnock
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 3–0; by chance quality the match ran 2.08–1.89.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Falkirk to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 44% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 2.1–1.9, shots 18–10 with 8–0 on target. Falkirk got into the box far more often (12 shots inside it to 6) and Falkirk held 63% of the ball. Falkirk's finishing ran hot — 3 from 2.1 xG, 8 of 18 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 3–0 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.