FSV Mainz 05 2–3 Werder Bremen
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–3; by chance quality the match ran 1.73–2.58.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured FSV Mainz 05 to win (65%); it finished with Werder Bremen to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 15% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
The xG read 1.7–2.6 in Werder Bremen's favour, but the shot count told the opposite story — 18–17 overall and 8–8 on target went FSV Mainz 05's way. The two pictures disagree, and aggregate counts can't see the quality of individual chances — so this reads closer than either number alone suggests. FSV Mainz 05 got into the box far more often (15 shots inside it to 11).
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
FSV Mainz 05 3-5-2
- 1 A. Schwolow (G)
- 2 P. Mwene (D)
- 4 S. Posch (D)
- 6 K. Sano (M)
- 7 Lee Jae-Sung (M)
- 9 P. Tietz (F)
- 10 N. Amiri (M)
- 19 A. Caci (D)
- 21 D. da Costa (D)
- 23 S. Becker (F)
- 48 K. Potulski (D)
Bench: B. Hollerbach, M. Kinzig, R. Königsdörffer, L. Maloney, F. Gruber, E. Martel, R. Nakuzola, P. Nebel, S. Widmer
Werder Bremen 4-2-3-1
- 1 K. Hein (G)
- 2 O. Deman (M)
- 5 A. Pieper (D)
- 8 M. Weiser (M)
- 10 N. Füllkrug (F)
- 13 Arthur (D)
- 15 L. Reis (M)
- 17 M. Grüll (F)
- 20 Chuky San José (M)
- 32 M. Friedl (D)
- 44 Y. Regeer (M)
Bench: E. Dinkçi, P. Erevbenagie, C. Itten, S. Lynen, K. Quetant, A. Schlager, Mick Schmetgens, Dariusz Stalmach, O. Wójcik
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance FSV Mainz 05 or draw | 1.22 | 77.3% | -1.0 pts |
| Double chance Werder Bremen or draw | 2.06 | 45.7% | +1.6 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.23 | 76.9% | -0.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — FSV Mainz 05 | 1.32 | 70.9% | -1.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — Werder Bremen | 3.21 | 29.1% | +1.6 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.15 | 82.1% | +0.9 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 62.8% | +1.4 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.27 | 42.1% | +1.3 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 | 62.1% | +1.2 pts |
| FSV Mainz 05 over 1.5 team goals | 1.55 | 60.4% | -0.4 pts |
| Werder Bremen over 1.5 team goals | 2.59 | 36.2% | +2.4 pts |
| FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | -2.2 pts |
| Werder Bremen clean sheet | 6.50 | 14.6% | +1.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.86 · 2-1 7.88 · 1-0 9.74 · 2-0 10.09 · 3-1 11.25
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-24 13:02 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Mar 26 | Werder Bremen | 0-2 | FSV Mainz 05 |
| 01 Nov 25 | FSV Mainz 05 | 1-1 | Werder Bremen |