Girona 5–1 Celta de Vigo II
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 5–1; by chance quality the match ran 3.32–0.73.
The brain read
Girona created the better chances — the xG read 3.3–0.7 and the shot count agreed (21–3, 8–3 on target). Girona got into the box far more often (12 shots inside it to 2) and Girona held 65% of the ball. Girona's finishing ran hot — 5 from 3.3 xG, 8 of 21 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On the balance of chances, the 5–1 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Girona 4-2-3-1
- 3 Mateu Morey (D)
- 5 David López (D)
- 8 Fran Beltrán (M)
- 11 Álex Moreno (D)
- 13 P. Gazzaniga (G)
- 16 Alejandro Francés (D)
- 19 V. Vanat (F)
- 22 Y. Asprilla (M)
- 23 Carles Pérez (M)
- 24 I. Gonzalez (M)
- 30 Unai Hernández (M)
Bench: Portu, V. Krapyvtsov, M. Furtado, Iván Morante, A. Mumin, D. van de Beek, Holmes Zamorano, C. Stuani, Abel Ruiz, Oleksandr Pishchur, Sergi Puig, L. Kourouma
Celta de Vigo II 3-4-2-1
- 1 Coke Carrillo (G)
- 2 P. Gavian (D)
- 3 K. Ribes (D)
- 6 P. Meixus (D)
- 9 A. Marin (F)
- 10 O. Marcos (M)
- 11 Ángel Arcos (M)
- 16 Adrià Capdevila (M)
- 17 H. Cuenca (M)
- 18 Joel López (M)
- 23 G. Miller (M)
Bench: M. Gonzalez, M. Sobral, Noah Rodríguez Guallar, Jorge Pérez-Lafuente Rey, Jan Oliveras, S. M. Ndiaye, A. Kibet, Vladimir Henrique Silva, A. Davila Outerelo, Caio Barone, Stefan Bajčetić
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Girona or draw | 1.07 | 88.6% | +1.3 pts |
| Double chance Celta de Vigo II or draw | 3.25 | 29.1% | -1.7 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.15 | 82.2% | +0.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Girona | 1.09 | 85.8% | +1.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — Celta de Vigo II | 6.58 | 14.2% | -1.6 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.15 | 81.9% | +0.8 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 62.3% | +1.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.27 | 41.6% | +1.1 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.79 | 52.0% | -0.7 pts |
| Girona over 1.5 team goals | 1.36 | 68.2% | +1.4 pts |
| Celta de Vigo II over 1.5 team goals | 4.31 | 21.6% | -1.1 pts |
| Girona clean sheet | 2.00 | 46.4% | +2.1 pts |
| Celta de Vigo II clean sheet | 9.00 | 10.6% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 2-0 6.80 · 1-0 7.81 · 2-1 7.86 · 3-0 8.54 · 1-1 9.31
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-24 16:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).