Las Palmas 1–0 Real Sociedad II
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–0; by chance quality the match ran 1.09–0.92.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.1–0.9, shots 13–12 with 4–3 on target. Real Sociedad II's finishing let them down — 0 from 0.9 xG despite 3 of 12 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 1–0 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Las Palmas 4-4-2
- 4 Álex Suárez (D)
- 10 Jesé (F)
- 11 T. Miyashiro (M)
- 12 E. Loiodice (M)
- 13 José Caro (G)
- 14 Manu Fuster (F)
- 15 Juan Herzog (D)
- 21 G. Bonfanti (D)
- 24 Iván Jaime (M)
- 25 Valentín Pezzolesi (D)
- 34 Sergio Viera (M)
Bench: A. Bassinga, Ale García, Jefté Betancor, Mateo Acimovic, I. Medina, N. Opoku, J. Recoba, A. Rodriguez, Kirian Rodríguez, Adrián Suárez, Elías Romero, Eduard Mohedano Serrano
Real Sociedad II 4-4-2
- 3 Jon Balda (D)
- 5 K. Kita (D)
- 7 Dani Díaz (M)
- 8 Ibai Aguirre (M)
- 11 Alex Garcia (F)
- 14 Tomás Carbonell (M)
- 15 I. Calderon (D)
- 16 Gorka Gorosabel (M)
- 18 Gorka Carrera (F)
- 22 Rupérez (D)
- 32 Lander Olasagasti (G)
Bench: Jon Eceizabarrena, Lander Astiazarán, Jon Garro, A. Lebarbier, Arkaitz Mariezkurrena, J. Oleaga, Sydney Osazuwa, Andrews Adjabeng, Unax Agote, A. Unax, Javier Soroeta, Aitor Fraga
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Las Palmas or draw | 1.34 | 70.3% | -5.3 pts |
| Double chance Real Sociedad II or draw | 1.67 | 56.5% | +6.9 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.29 | 73.2% | -1.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — Las Palmas | 1.57 | 59.4% | -8.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Real Sociedad II | 2.29 | 40.6% | +8.8 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.21 | 77.2% | +0.6 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.72 | 55.0% | +0.6 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.76 | 33.9% | +0.5 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.58 | 58.9% | +2.7 pts |
| Las Palmas over 1.5 team goals | 1.93 | 48.2% | -4.2 pts |
| Real Sociedad II over 1.5 team goals | 2.48 | 37.7% | +5.4 pts |
| Las Palmas clean sheet | 3.00 | 31.2% | -2.5 pts |
| Real Sociedad II clean sheet | 5.00 | 19.0% | +1.8 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.36 · 2-1 8.09 · 1-0 8.55 · 1-2 10.14 · 0-1 10.79
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-24 16:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jan 26 | Real Sociedad II | 1-1 | Las Palmas |
| 12 Sep 25 | Las Palmas | 2-1 | Real Sociedad II |