Lens 2–1 Paris FC
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–1; by chance quality the match ran 0.93–0.43.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Lens to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 44% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Lens created the better chances — the xG read 0.9–0.4 and the shot count agreed (9–4, 3–1 on target). Lens's finishing ran hot — 2 from 0.9 xG, 3 of 9 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On the balance of chances, the 2–1 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Lens 3-4-2-1
- 2 R. Aguilar (M)
- 6 S. Baidoo (D)
- 7 F. Sotoca (M)
- 10 F. Thauvin (M)
- 14 M. Udol (M)
- 20 J. Todibo (D)
- 21 A. Haidara (M)
- 23 Saud Abdulhamid (D)
- 27 M. Cuisance (M)
- 29 F. Ivanović (F)
- 40 R. Risser (G)
Bench: T. Hazard, M. Skóraś, M. Soares, Y. Titraoui, N. Äelik, J. Kadile, K. Antonio, A. Bulatović, M. Gorgelin
Paris FC 4-2-3-1
- 5 M. Mbow (D)
- 6 Otávio (D)
- 7 P. Pagis (M)
- 9 L. Sinayoko (F)
- 10 I. Kebbal (M)
- 15 L. Koleosho (M)
- 16 O. Nkambadio (G)
- 17 A. Camara (D)
- 20 M. Lopez (M)
- 33 P. Lees-Melou (M)
- 42 D. Coppola (D)
Bench: E. Zabi, T. De Smet, J. Krasso, E. Mbemba, Ibrahim Meïté, R. Matondo, M. Simon, O. Sissoko, Y. Koré
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Lens or draw | 1.47 | 64.1% | -2.7 pts |
| Double chance Paris FC or draw | 1.50 | 63.0% | +3.5 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.29 | 73.0% | -0.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — Lens | 1.83 | 50.8% | -4.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Paris FC | 1.88 | 49.2% | +4.2 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.19 | 79.0% | +0.4 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.64 | 58.0% | +0.5 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.53 | 37.3% | +0.6 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 | 62.1% | +0.4 pts |
| Lens over 1.5 team goals | 2.08 | 45.4% | -2.3 pts |
| Paris FC over 1.5 team goals | 2.12 | 44.4% | +2.4 pts |
| Lens clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | -1.6 pts |
| Paris FC clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | +1.7 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.76 · 2-1 9.26 · 1-2 9.41 · 1-0 10.54 · 0-1 10.82
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-24 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb 26 | Paris FC | 0-5 | Lens |
| 19 Oct 25 | Lens | 2-1 | Paris FC |