Portsmouth 2–1 Millwall
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–1; by chance quality the match ran 0.91–0.73.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Millwall to win (44%); it finished with Portsmouth to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 27% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 0.9–0.7, shots 7–10 with 2–1 on target. Portsmouth's finishing ran hot — 2 from 0.9 xG, 2 of 7 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 2–1 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Portsmouth 4-2-3-1
- 1 N. Schmid (G)
- 5 R. Poole (D)
- 7 M. Pack (M)
- 10 A. Segecic (M)
- 11 A. Kamara (M)
- 22 Z. Swanson (D)
- 24 T. Devlin (D)
- 25 R. Kavuma McQueen (M)
- 29 M. Milovanović (F)
- 37 I. Mohamed (M)
- 55 M. Dia (D)
Bench: R. Shein, E. Adams, O. Bailey, D. Bielica, E. Kenny, J. Meghoma, F. Umeh, T. Shade, T. Waddingham
Millwall 4-2-3-1
- 3 Zak Norton Sturge (D)
- 4 T. Crama (D)
- 5 J. Cooper (D)
- 6 C. Taylor (D)
- 10 C. Neghli (M)
- 13 L. Dykes (F)
- 14 Jenson Metcalfe (M)
- 15 M. Crocombe (G)
- 22 K. Lisbie (M)
- 25 L. Cundle (M)
- 49 D. Mazou-Sacko (M)
Bench: A. Doughty, R. Esse, M. Ivanović, D. Kelly, R. Leonard, J. Osei-Tutu, M. Sykes, E. Baggott, G. Evans
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Portsmouth or draw | 1.40 | 66.6% | +2.2 pts |
| Double chance Millwall or draw | 1.50 | 62.2% | -1.5 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.31 | 71.3% | -0.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — Portsmouth | 1.77 | 52.4% | +1.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — Millwall | 1.95 | 47.6% | -1.7 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.30 | 72.0% | +0.7 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.96 | 48.1% | +0.1 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.34 | 28.0% | +0.1 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.72 | 54.0% | +0.4 pts |
| Portsmouth over 1.5 team goals | 2.34 | 39.8% | +1.3 pts |
| Millwall over 1.5 team goals | 2.54 | 36.7% | -1.4 pts |
| Portsmouth clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | +1.4 pts |
| Millwall clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.8% | -2.3 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.06 · 1-0 7.97 · 0-1 8.66 · 2-1 9.10 · 0-0 9.37
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-24 11:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Feb 26 | Millwall | 1-3 | Portsmouth |
| 22 Nov 25 | Portsmouth | 3-1 | Millwall |