Preston 1–1 West Brom
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.83–2.09.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured West Brom to win (42%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 28% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.8–2.1, shots 19–20 with 4–5 on target. West Brom held 72% of the ball. Preston's finishing let them down — 1 from 1.8 xG despite 4 of 19 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). A 1–1 draw the numbers agree with.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Preston 4-2-3-1
- 1 D. Iversen (G)
- 3 A. Vukčević (D)
- 7 A. Devine (M)
- 14 J. Storey (D)
- 16 A. Hughes (D)
- 17 S. Mills (M)
- 24 O. Offiah (D)
- 27 L. Leroy (M)
- 37 D. Burgzorg (M)
- 38 J. Kenny (F)
- 44 B. Potts (M)
Bench: J. Erabi, Isaac Irwin, C. Lang, A. Moran, L. Nicholls, T. Small, Pol Valentín, C. Wiley, Ed Nolan
West Brom 4-4-2
- 1 M. O’Leary (G)
- 2 C. Mepham (D)
- 4 C. Styles (D)
- 6 G. Campbell (D)
- 7 F. Myhre (F)
- 8 J. Molumby (M)
- 9 B. Stewart (F)
- 17 O. Diakité (M)
- 18 B. Pereira (D)
- 21 I. Price (M)
- 29 Harry Whitwell (M)
Bench: M. Ingram, J. Morgan, R. Nzingoula, N. Phillips, C. Townsend, K. Tunde, A. Heggebø, T. Bany, Matthew Crowther
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Preston or draw | 1.82 | 51.4% | -0.5 pts |
| Double chance West Brom or draw | 1.25 | 74.8% | +0.2 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.27 | 73.8% | +0.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Preston | 2.73 | 34.0% | -1.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — West Brom | 1.40 | 66.0% | +1.1 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.26 | 74.1% | +0.6 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.87 | 50.6% | +0.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.11 | 30.1% | +0.2 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.71 | 54.4% | +0.5 pts |
| Preston over 1.5 team goals | 3.00 | 31.0% | +0.0 pts |
| West Brom over 1.5 team goals | 1.91 | 48.8% | +0.8 pts |
| Preston clean sheet | 4.33 | 21.7% | +0.0 pts |
| West Brom clean sheet | 2.75 | 33.7% | -1.7 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.49 · 0-1 7.27 · 1-2 8.09 · 0-2 9.36 · 0-0 10.61
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-24 13:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr 26 | Preston | 0-2 | West Brom |
| 18 Oct 25 | West Brom | 2-1 | Preston |