Racing Santander 2–1 Espanyol
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–1; by chance quality the match ran 2.50–0.62.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Espanyol to win (36%); it finished with Racing Santander to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 36% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Racing Santander created the better chances — the xG read 2.5–0.6 and the shot count agreed (23–11, 9–1 on target). Racing Santander got into the box far more often (18 shots inside it to 8). On the balance of chances, the 2–1 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Racing Santander 4-2-3-1
- 2 Álvaro Mantilla (D)
- 5 Pablo Ramón (D)
- 10 Iñigo Vicente (M)
- 11 Andrés Martín (M)
- 13 Julen Agirrezabala (G)
- 17 Jorge Salinas (D)
- 18 M. Prati (M)
- 20 Sergio Canales (M)
- 21 M. Zabiri (F)
- 23 Iván Martín (M)
- 24 J. Belocian (D)
Bench: Pedro Felipe, Asier Villalibre, Íñigo Sainz-Maza, André Almeida, Aarón Martín, Iker Luque, Juan Carlos Arana, Pablo García, Facundo González, M. Gueye, G. Guliashvili, Laro Gómez
Espanyol 4-4-2
- 1 Ángel Fortuño (G)
- 3 Q. Hartman (D)
- 6 L. Cabrera (D)
- 8 Edu Expósito (M)
- 9 Roberto Fernández (F)
- 10 Pol Lozano (M)
- 15 Bryan Zaragoza (M)
- 16 V. Drkušić (D)
- 22 Álex Calatrava (M)
- 23 O. El Hilali (D)
- 28 Javier Hernandez (F)
Bench: Rafel Bauzà, M. Dmitrović, T. Dolan, Marcos Fernández, Urko González, Gorosabel, Roger Hinojo, Pere Milla, Unai Núñez, Javi Puado, C. Riedel, Gabriel Moscardo
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Racing Santander or draw | 1.39 | 67.8% | +1.5 pts |
| Double chance Espanyol or draw | 1.61 | 58.6% | -1.3 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.28 | 73.6% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Racing Santander | 1.66 | 55.9% | +1.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — Espanyol | 2.11 | 44.1% | -1.5 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.19 | 79.2% | +1.4 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.64 | 58.4% | +1.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.53 | 37.3% | +1.2 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.51 | 61.9% | +1.6 pts |
| Racing Santander over 1.5 team goals | 1.92 | 48.9% | +2.1 pts |
| Espanyol over 1.5 team goals | 2.26 | 41.6% | -0.2 pts |
| Racing Santander clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | +0.0 pts |
| Espanyol clean sheet | 4.50 | 20.8% | -0.9 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.90 · 2-1 8.79 · 1-0 10.04 · 1-2 10.06 · 2-2 10.89
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-24 14:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).