Rayo Vallecano 0–3 Elche
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–3; by chance quality the match ran 1.61–2.63.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Rayo Vallecano to win (62%); it finished with Elche to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 15% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Elche created the better chances — the xG read 1.6–2.6 and the shot count agreed (18–16, 5–9 on target). Rayo Vallecano's finishing let them down — 0 from 1.6 xG despite 5 of 18 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On the balance of chances, the 0–3 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Rayo Vallecano or draw | 1.20 | 78.8% | +0.1 pts |
| Double chance Elche or draw | 2.06 | 45.9% | +0.1 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.25 | 75.3% | -0.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Rayo Vallecano | 1.30 | 71.9% | +0.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Elche | 3.32 | 28.1% | -0.4 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.26 | 74.8% | -0.1 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.84 | 52.0% | -0.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.01 | 31.4% | -0.7 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | 53.4% | -0.1 pts |
| Rayo Vallecano over 1.5 team goals | 1.78 | 52.7% | -0.1 pts |
| Elche over 1.5 team goals | 3.30 | 28.4% | -0.2 pts |
| Rayo Vallecano clean sheet | 2.50 | 37.5% | +0.0 pts |
| Elche clean sheet | 5.00 | 19.0% | +1.8 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.02 · 1-0 7.11 · 2-1 7.86 · 2-0 8.33 · 0-0 11.09
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-24 11:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Apr 26 | Rayo Vallecano | 1-0 | Elche |
| 21 Dec 25 | Elche | 4-0 | Rayo Vallecano |