Saint Etienne 1–0 Nantes
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–0; by chance quality the match ran 0.83–0.30.
The brain read
Saint Etienne created the better chances — the xG read 0.8–0.3 and the shot count agreed (11–4, 3–2 on target). Saint Etienne got into the box far more often (6 shots inside it to 3) and Saint Etienne held 65% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the 1–0 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Saint Etienne 4-2-3-1
- 1 Mamour Ndiaye (G)
- 6 M. Bernauer (M)
- 7 I. Cardona (F)
- 10 J. Breum (M)
- 11 B. Old (D)
- 13 João Ferreira (D)
- 14 Á. Csongvai (M)
- 20 A. Boakye (M)
- 22 Z. Davitashvili (M)
- 23 K. Pedro (D)
- 26 J. Le Cardinal (D)
Bench: Adam Baallal, N. Kasia Nkondo, M. Jaber, L. Lavallée, J. Duffus, Chico Lamba, N. El Jamali, E. Dhaoui, T. Ballo
Nantes 3-4-3
- 4 S. Sow (D)
- 8 J. Lepenant (F)
- 13 F. Doucouré (M)
- 24 F. Guilbert (D)
- 26 R. Hachem (M)
- 27 T. Robinet (F)
- 28 I. Sissoko (M)
- 30 P. Carlgren (G)
- 37 I. Ganago (F)
- 44 B. Pierret (M)
- 98 K. Amian (D)
Bench: W. Younoussa, M. Cafaro, F. Centonze, A. Cherni, K. Corredor, M. Dupé, A. Joujou, Louis Leroux, L. Perrin
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Saint Etienne or draw | 1.19 | 78.6% | +1.0 pts |
| Double chance Nantes or draw | 2.05 | 45.8% | -1.3 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.24 | 75.7% | +0.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Saint Etienne | 1.30 | 71.9% | +1.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Nantes | 3.32 | 28.1% | -1.8 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | 76.3% | +0.2 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.76 | 53.6% | -0.0 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.87 | 32.4% | -0.1 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.70 | 54.6% | -0.4 pts |
| Saint Etienne over 1.5 team goals | 1.72 | 54.2% | +0.8 pts |
| Nantes over 1.5 team goals | 3.19 | 29.3% | -0.5 pts |
| Saint Etienne clean sheet | 2.50 | 37.5% | +2.0 pts |
| Nantes clean sheet | 5.50 | 17.2% | -1.8 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.04 · 1-0 7.49 · 2-1 7.81 · 2-0 8.55 · 0-0 11.89
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-24 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).